FORECASTING TOTAL SALES OF HIGH-TECH PRODUCTS - Daily Diffusion Models and a Genetic Algorithm

Masaru Tezuka, Satoshi Munakata

2009

Abstract

In recent years, the release interval of high-tech consumer products such as mobile phones and portable media players is getting shorter. New models of mobile phones are released three times a year in Japan. The manufactures have to avoid dead stock because the value of the previous model drops sharply after the launch of the new model. In this paper, we propose a method to forecast the total sales of the products. The method utilizes diffusion models for forecasting. Only short-term sales record is available since the sales are forecasted one month after the release. In order to make effective use of the available data, we use a day as the time unit of forecasting. To apply the diffusion models to daily demand forecasting, we derive the difference equation representation of the models and propose discrete-time diffusion models. Day-of-week-dependent parameters are introduced to the models. The proposed method is tested on the data provided by a high-tech consumer products manufacturer. The result shows that the proposed method has an excellent forecasting ability.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Tezuka M. and Munakata S. (2009). FORECASTING TOTAL SALES OF HIGH-TECH PRODUCTS - Daily Diffusion Models and a Genetic Algorithm . In Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS, ISBN 978-989-8111-85-2, pages 335-338. DOI: 10.5220/0001991903350338

in Bibtex Style

@conference{iceis09,
author={Masaru Tezuka and Satoshi Munakata},
title={FORECASTING TOTAL SALES OF HIGH-TECH PRODUCTS - Daily Diffusion Models and a Genetic Algorithm},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS,},
year={2009},
pages={335-338},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0001991903350338},
isbn={978-989-8111-85-2},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 2: ICEIS,
TI - FORECASTING TOTAL SALES OF HIGH-TECH PRODUCTS - Daily Diffusion Models and a Genetic Algorithm
SN - 978-989-8111-85-2
AU - Tezuka M.
AU - Munakata S.
PY - 2009
SP - 335
EP - 338
DO - 10.5220/0001991903350338