PERHAPS A RECIPE FOR CHANGE?

Will e-Voting Have the Desired Effect?

Mark Liptrott

Edge Hill College, St. Helens Road, Ormskirk, L39 4QP

Keywords: Electronic voting, local government, central government, diffusion of innovations.

Abstract: This work is a progress report and briefly describes the main findings from the literature review of the

research into electronic voting as it identifies factors which affect the decision-making processes of the

English local authorities which are offered the opportunity to trial electronic voting. The analysis is based

on Rogers’ diffusion of innovations theory framework. A key result found that in a voluntary situation

where there is one overarching organization trying to introduce an innovation to an agency organization,

Rogers’ diffusion of innovations theory framework requires modification.

1 INTRODUCTION

The research outlines the first part of the project to

identify the reasons why some English local

authorities have taken part in the pilot schemes of e-

voting and others have not. Aspects of the Rogers

diffusion of innovations theory framework will be

used to test whether the innovation, e-voting, will

diffuse in accordance with that theory. Accordingly

the hypothesis is “Electronic voting: Diffusion from

central to local government.”

This qualitative study was deemed appropriate as

there is little information regarding the reasons that

some English local authorities volunteer for the pilot

schemes of the innovative voting methods while

others refuse to volunteer. This acceptability

research analyses an innovation in the prediffusion

stage in order to identify elements of the innovation

which will make it more acceptable to the local

authorities. The analysis of the variables which

encourage or inhibit diffusion of an innovation from

central government to local government will result

in recommendations to central government regarding

their strategy for the implementation of innovations.

These initial results of the literature review pave the

way for the next part of the project.

2 BACKGROUND

Electronic voting has been introduced for two

reasons, firstly in an effort to stem the decline in

voter numbers and secondly as part of the strategy to

modernise the systems of government and it is hoped

to hold an e-enabled general election sometime after

2006

(Electoral Commission, 2002:2). Voter

turnouts at elections have been falling for the last

fifty years

from a high of 83.6% at the general

election of 1950 to 59.4% in the general election of

2001. This last figure brought fears that future

elections could see the turnout decline to less than

50% and could mean that the authorities have no

mandate (Coleman 2002:5). There was no

significant improvement in 2005 with a turnout of

61.3%, only 1.9% higher than 2001 (Electoral

Commission, 2005). Following the General election

of 1997 the government established a working party

which recommended a programme of pilot schemes

of innovative electoral procedures to evaluate their

effectiveness (Electoral Commission Factsheet,

2003:1). The Representation of the People Act 2000

gave effect to those recommendations and to date

there has been a series of election pilots in May

2000, 2002 and 2003, each of which has been

evaluated by the Electoral Commission.

Participation in the pilot schemes is voluntary and

2003 saw the largest scheme to test innovative

voting practices. Across England almost 6.4 million

people were eligible to vote in these pilot areas, 14%

of the English electorate, of the fifty nine local

authorities taking part, fourteen included internet

usage (Electoral Commission, 2003a:1). However

the UK government is not piloting the new voting

methods in 2006 due to security concerns but is

232

Liptrott M. (2006).

PERHAPS A RECIPE FOR CHANGE? - Will e-Voting Have the Desired Effect?.

In Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - DISI, pages 232-238

DOI: 10.5220/0002445402320238

 SciTePress

determined to pursue e-voting once those matters

have been addressed (Richardson, 2005:1).

The move to electronic voting is gathering pace

throughout the world. Postal voting is available as

an option in Australia, Canada, Spain, Sweden and

Ireland. Internet voting is not yet available in those

countries but there are discussions in Sweden

regarding its introduction in 2010. Italy has offered

to aid some African countries in their pursuit of e-

voting. The USA anticipates that the Help America

Vote Act 2002 will aid the development of the new

voting practices as America has experimented with

the Secure Electronic Registration and Voting

Experiment, SERVE, to allow absentee military

voters in 50 counties in seven states to place their

votes. India has conducted an electronic election

relying on voting machines. Brazil too has made use

of voting machines; each candidate was numbered as

the rate of illiteracy is high. In Singapore the

Elections Department has agreed to hold Internet

voting in one or two constituencies at the next

presidential or general election. So it can be seen,

even from this tiny snapshot, there is a growing

momentum for the new voting methods.

3 RESEARCH FRAMEWORK

A key element of this research is the relationship

between central and local government as central

government seeks to introduce e-voting. This work

will adopt the agency model of local government. In

this respect once local government has applied to

conduct a pilot scheme, there is little discretion

regarding the type of pilot, what they ask for is not

necessarily what they receive. Central government

maintains control over the range of e-voting

processes and the available finances. Coleman

(1994:146) summaries the purpose of this control as

“resources to provide an extension of self” in that

central government are pursuing their own interests.

Consequently, the alternative power dependence

model is unsuitable for this work as there is no

bargaining and exchange of resources, the power lies

with central government.

The empirical research will involve taking a

sample of three local authorities which have taken

part in the pilot schemes and three local authorities

which have not taken part, and evaluating their

committee reports which outline their decision

regarding their participation in the 2003 pilot

schemes. The election officers of those local

authorities will then participate in semi-structured

interviews. There will also be an interview with the

officer in the Department of Constitutional Affairs

who is responsible for the implementation of the

new practices. The thematic literature review has

acted as a research facilitator in that it has identified

questions which need to be addressed in those

interviews and has identified factors which promote

or inhibit adoption and diffusion.

These research methods offer a realist

philosophy of social research. The outcome

(diffusion of e-voting) of the action, (the

introduction of e-voting) depends on the mechanism

(mass adoption) which in turn depends on the

perceived attributes of the innovation and the norms

of the social system. This takes place within a given

context, the social structure within which local

authorities and central government operate. This

approach allows for the interplay of context, process

and content.

This research project will use Rogers’ theory of

diffusion of innovations for organizations and the

decision-making process theory which pertains to

the individual, coupled with the perceived attributes

theory, to test whether the new voting practices will

be adopted by the local authorities. “An innovation

is an idea, practice or object that is perceived as new

by an individual or other unit of adoption.” (Rogers,

2003:12) E-voting is a new practice and therefore

satisfies this definition. The major diffusion

traditions are sociology, anthropology, public health,

communication and marketing (Rogers, 2003:101).

However this research will test the diffusion theory

in a setting in which it has not previously been

applied.

4 LITERATURE REVIEW

The main objectives of the literature review are to

establish:

1. What is electronic voting and what are the

contextual factors surrounding its

introduction?

2. What is the Everett Rogers diffusion of

innovations theory?

3. What characteristics of an innovation

influence its adoption?

4. How will the policy to adopt electronic

voting diffuse from central government to

local government?

The literature review critically evaluated,

identified and inter-related the themes to satisfy the

objectives. The different aspects of electronic

PERHAPS A RECIPE FOR CHANGE? - Will e-Voting Have the Desired Effect?

233

voting are detailed as is the change in voter

behaviour leading to falling turnouts at elections.

Rogers’ diffusion of innovations theory framework

for the individual and for organizations is outlined

with suggested alternatives. Following a description

of the meaning of adoption, the perceived attributes

theory is then expanded to evaluate the different

characteristics of an innovation, (in general terms

and of electronic voting), which influence adoption.

The final section analyses the changes which have

impacted on the English local authorities following

the Local Government Act 2000. That information

allowed an initial analysis of the fluctuating political

climate which has affected the norms of local

government.

5 FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION

The findings of this literature review have identified

some of the inhibiting factors which influence the

local authorities as they consider e-voting. These

factors centre upon the potential turnout, voter

attitude and capacity, security and privacy aspects,

the role of management in strategic planning for

change, external influences. However perhaps the

most inhibiting factor in the acceptance of e-voting

is the environment of constant enforced change and

adaptation imposed upon local government by

central government. In addition the research has

highlighted a deficiency in Rogers’ diffusion of

innovations framework.

There is widespread agreement regarding the new

methods of casting a vote but there is also agreement

that new voting methods alone will not increase

voter turnout. “Turnout through electronic means is

likely to mirror conventional voting patterns rather

than greatly alter them” as it is only likely to appeal

to those individuals who do not vote through time

poverty (Fairweather and Rogerson, 2002:28). The

major preparatory reports by Candy (2002),

Fairweather and Rogerson (2002), the Independent

Commission on Alternative Voting Methods

(ICAVM, 2002) and the Electoral Commission

(2003) recommend public education regarding the

new voting methods. This has not taken place,

indeed prior to each pilot scheme each local

authority devised its own publicity campaign. This

lack of a formal strategy is also noticeable in that

there is no detailed plan to introduce e-voting,

merely an aspiration for sometime after 2006

(Electoral Commission, 2002:2). The absence of

guidance may effect the way in which local

authorities view the status of the new forms of

voting as participation in the pilot schemes is

voluntary. The Electoral Commission recommends

“as a priority” a detailed road map towards its stated

goal (Electoral Commission 2003:7), while Dennis

Reed the Director of the Local Government

Information Unit, a think-tank, urges that there has

been too much caution (Parker,2003). However

Candy recommends “a long lead in time” to allow

individuals to become “comfortable with the idea of

electronic voting” (Candy 2002:36).

The need for public support for the new voting

practices is acknowledged, indeed Candy (2002:6)

considers that to be “pivotal” and as the ICAVM

(2002:6) notes “confidence in democratic elections

takes decades to develop and far less time to

destroy”. However there is an emphasis on a

divided society, in that many individuals, including

members of the local authorities, are not able to

understand or use the new technology. In order to

prevent individuals from being disenfranchised it is

advocated that multiple voting channels should be

maintained for the foreseeable future (ICAVM,

2002:13).

The local authorities appear to be introducing

this change without adaptation to their

organizational strategies. When an innovation is

initiated into an organizational setting the

management leadership underpins the introduction

and Rogers (2003:414) indicates the importance of

the role of the champion within an organization, “a

charismatic figure who throws his or her weight

behind an innovation, thus overcoming indifference

or resistance that the new idea may provoke in an

organisation.” They need not be a particularly

powerful person within the organisation but they

will be adept at handling people and skilful in

persuasion and negotiation. The importance of

strategic champions is emphasized at three levels,

Chief Executive, leading members of an

organisation and middle management. It is also

acknowledged that in a climate of change ideally

there should be a specialized proactive planning

department to provide a framework for this reactive

management and to ensure that there are sufficient

resources, financial and human (Collinge and Leach,

1998:60).

The literature recognises that the main attribute

of e-voting is convenience which will be enhanced

when it is possible to vote from anywhere in the

country but there are many concerns centering on

security and privacy. Unfortunately electronic

voting is vulnerable to a range of new threats to

those principles which the current system had been

designed to guard against (ICAVM, 2002:6). The

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dangers of the new technologies are recognized and

consist of concerns regarding hacking, viruses, spoof

sites, denial of service, disruption by strikes and

system failure (Fairweather and Rogerson, 2002:43-

45, Rubin,2001:20;Gritalis 2002:539-556), but the

only real recommendation to combat an attack to the

system is to maintain the multi-channelled approach

to voting while the technology research continues.

These findings are echoed by the Foundation for

Information Policy Research as it expresses the view

that the system is “ vulnerable to denial of service

attacks on clients, servers and the communications

infrastructure” and continues by adding “the very

limited benefits that remote e-voting may provide

are completely outweighed by the security risks”

(Rubin, 2002:3).

An important advantage of the present method of

casting a vote is privacy. The voter enters the booth

alone to cast their vote and it is securely placed in

the supervised ballot box. This supervised

environment safeguards the peculiar features of our

voting system. However in an unsupervised

environment there are real dangers that certain

individuals may be subjected to pressure. The

home-based voting does not offer the same level of

privacy, as the telephone, TV or home PC may be in

a common area, and vulnerable voters, such as the

women, dependant children, the elderly or disabled

may come under pressure to alter their vote. “The

public act of voting is incompatible with private life

in the family” (Fairweather and Rogerson, 2001:52,

53). The present trials of the new voting methods

should continue to afford individuals the opportunity

to test these new methods and to allow central

government to fully address the issues of security

and secrecy.

It has become increasingly clear that the local

authorities have undergone significant changes in

their structure and mode of operations following the

Local Government Act 2000. They have been

obliged to adopt one of three forms of executive

government and they now have become enabling

bodies, no longer necessarily providing services but

acting in partnership to commission services to be

provided. “For a country once used to stability in its

governmental institutions, this breadth, scale and

speed of change are at least remarkable and, to

many, constitutionally and democratically

threatening” (Wilson and Game 2002:94). The local

councillors now are either an executive or non-

executive members of the local authority. The

executive members make and are publicly

responsible for the policy decisions through the

process of scrutiny by the non-executive members.

In the past there has always been a superficial role

for reviewing council decisions but it is now more

proactive and in depth. The scrutineers are able to

critically examine the actions of the authority and

can apportion blame. This increased depth of

scrutiny may result in the executive councillors

(sometimes called the cabinet members) having to

justify their decisions, so in order to reduce any risk

to their reputation they may not be willing to

implement e-voting. Consequently there is

resentment by the local authorities at their loss of

services, policy influence and resources (Wilson and

Game, 2002:140).

Equally significant are the external influences of

information produced by the mass media and

personal contact. The recent media reports have

centered upon the abuses of the system in certain

parts of the country and reinforce the findings

regarding security and privacy. In 2002 there were

warnings of the dangers of relying on the postal

service to deliver the ballot papers on time. 2005

also saw a barrage of media reports describing

illegal activities from such diverse places as

Hackney, Guildford and Blackburn and asking

whether it will be possible to rely on the results of

the 2005 General election. Judge Richard Mawrey,

Chairman of the Inquiry into vote rigging, made a

most damning comment as he found six Birmingham

councillors guilty of vote rigging; he said that the

fraud would “disgrace a banana republic”(Eastham,

2005)

Nevertheless the most important influences are

the direct contacts between individuals. (Schudsen

1993:95) Individuals monitor each other and there

is an increasing degree of pressure to adopt or reject

an innovation based on peer pressure, this has a

cumulative influence on adoption. Valente

(1995:15) calls this imitating behaviour, contagion,

which can occur as a result of direct social ties or

status comparison. The social learning theory is

directly applicable to diffusion as one individual

learns from another by observation and then does

something similar. However this ignores the

autokinetic influence which comes into effect when

individuals are faced with a decision based on

something that they do not care about or do not

understand. They will rely on each other to make

sense of the innovation and develop a collective

approach to create an opinion (Katz and Larsfeld,

1955:185).

Central government policy to gradually

introduce e-voting has resulted in the pilot

programme which is a widely promoted idea in

diffusion research but pilot projects are no guarantee

PERHAPS A RECIPE FOR CHANGE? - Will e-Voting Have the Desired Effect?

235

of diffusion (Kautz and Henriksen, 2002,:160,170).

“Almost every local authority in the country has

developed or piloted some new service” (Wilson and

Game 2002:40). There has been an increase in the

number of different pilot schemes that local

authorities have been asked to undertake. For

example Bradford pioneered steel framed doors in

council houses while Broadlands recycles Yellow

Pages. It is into this atmosphere of imposed change

and experimentation that e-voting has been

introduced. Coaffee and Johnston (2005:174) note

with some disquiet that “all to often local

governments are forced to implement change out of

political allegiance, the lack of an alternative route

to follow or simply as a result of pressures on time

or resources.” This constant atmosphere of

uncertainty will have an effect on the members of

the local authorities as they are asked to consider

even more change. Even the Labour MP Dianne

Abbot speaking on the BBC (2005) commented that

there were too many initiatives.

However it is becoming clear that in a voluntary

adoption situation, such as the pilot schemes of e-

voting, Rogers individual decision-making theory

and the organizational decision making theory

amalgamate. Central government acting as an

organization has completed stages one and two of

the innovation process in organizations, in that they

have recognized that there is a problem and have

devised a strategy to address it. They then ask for

volunteers for the e-voting pilots, at this stage even

though there will eventually be a collective decision

from each local authority, each appropriate local

authority officer, the executive member responsible

for this particular policy and the individual members

of the full council who have to ratify the decision,

consider the innovation on an individual basis. They

either decline to take part in the trial or if they agree,

the results of the pilot are passed back to central

government for re-defining and clarifying prior to

the next pilot. The local councillors do not undergo

the first stage of Rogers’ individual decision-making

process theory, knowledge, as in this situation there

is no formal mass media campaign which spreads

knowledge of the innovation. While there may be

some peripheral media reports the information for

the agency organization comes from the overarching

organization and is bias towards adoption.

The councillors are subjected to the second stage

of Rogers’ individual decision making process,

persuasion. The members of the local authorities

may be persuaded to trial the new voting methods as

a result of peer pressure from internal or external

sources “People can induce each other to a variety

of activities as a result of their interpersonal

relations and thus their influence goes far beyond the

content of

their communications” (Katz and

Larsfeld: 185).

These findings demonstrate that where an

innovation is offered for a voluntary trial by an over-

arching organization to a sub-ordinate organization,

the Rogers’ individual decision-making process

model and his organizational decision-making model

amalgamate. This situation will pertain in any

agency organizational relationship where there is an

overarching organization, in this case central

government and a sub-ordinate organization and the

innovation is introduced on a voluntary basis. The

agency organization does not clarify or redesign the

innovation, that is the responsibility of the

overarching organization. While there may be some

peripheral media reports the information for the

agency organization comes from the overarching

organization and is bias towards adoption. Figure

one demonstrates the amalgamated model of

Rogers’ diffusion of an innovation. This circular

testing will continue in this case until central

government decides to compulsorily implement e-

voting.

6 CONCLUSION

This paper has offered a brief resume of some of the

major influences faced by the members of the UK

local authorities. The major issue appears to be the

drive for modernization by increasing centralization.

Indeed criticism has come from the Chairman of the

Local Government Association, launching the 2005

manifesto, he claims the “UK now has a uniquely

centralised system of controlling public services

from Whitehall” (LGA, 2005). It is not surprising

that in this atmosphere of enforced change when the

local authorities are given the option to instigate

even more change by introducing e-voting, they

refuse, and without their active co-operation e-

voting may never be given a real chance to enhance

participatory democracy. While the UK government

has devised the recipe for change a major ingredient,

e-voting, will not achieve the aim of greater voter

participation until the inhibiting factors have been

addressed.

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Central Government – Initiation stages 1 and 2

Local Government

(Knowledge) Implementation

Persuasion

Decision

Implementation Re-defining and Clarifying

(trial)

Routinisation

Figure 1: The amalgamated model of Rogers’ individual decision-making process and the decision-making process for

organizations.

The results of this first part of the research have

raised issues which need to be addressed during the

second part. These results together with the

secondary data from the councils and the primary

data from the interviews will satisfy the objectives

and allow an assessment of the hypothesis. The

empirical research will investigate the reasons

behind the local authorities’ decisions to either

embrace or reject e-voting with special regard to the

effect of the changes in local government structures

and conduct, together with issues of resources,

management and soetial-pressure.

It is now clear that on completion of the second

part of this research project it will be possible to

recommend significant improvements in the way in

which innovations from central government should

be introduced to local government.

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