Some Approaches to Measuring Soil's Carbon Sequestration

Potential in Ukraine

Alla Achasova

, Andrii Achasov

, Ganna Titenko

and Vladimir Krivtsov

O.N. Sokolovsky

National Scientific Centre «Institute for Soil Science and Agrochemistry Research», Chaikovska St. 4,

Kharkiv, Ukraine

School of Ecology, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Kharkiv, Ukraine

Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, EH3 5LR Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Keywords: Carbon Sequestration, Carbon Sequestration Potential, GHG, Chernozems, Dehumification, Ukraine NDCs.

Abstract: The Strategy on reducing greenhouse gas emissions for the period up to 2030 was adopted in October 2021

at COP26. However, it does not take into account the potential of arable soils for carbon sequestration.

Meanwhile, on a global scale, carbon sequestration by soils is regarded as one of the most important tools to

combat further increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. According to preliminary estimates, the amount of

carbon that can potentially accumulate in the soils of Ukraine is 757,7 million tons, of which 23,3 million

tons - in the arable soils of Polisia, 350,3 million tons in the soils of the Forest-steppe and 384,2 million tons

soils of the Steppe of Ukraine. At the same time, modern assessments of the sequestration potential, do not

usually involve assessment of erosion processes and the spatial heterogeneity of humus accumulation

conditions, which significantly change the carbon cycle in slope soils. This article discusses four possible

approaches to assessing the potential of soil sequestration as well as the popular, but difficult to implement,

method of carbon accumulation modeling. The authors consider three variants of the balance method for

assessing the potential capacity of soil sequestration based on the difference between potential and real content

of organic carbon. All three approaches give similar results for assessing the sequestration potential of

chernozem soils.

1 INTRODUCTION

The apparent exacerbation of climate change is

forcing the world community to step up its efforts to

reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and

carbon content in the atmosphere by its sequestration.

In 2021, Ukraine took several important steps to

achieve climate neutrality. In June, the government

approved the second Nationally Determined

Contributions (NDCs) for Paris Agreement (Cabinet

of Ministers of Ukraine, 2021a). In October, the

Cabinet of Ministers adopted the Environmental

Security and Climate Change Adaptation Strategy of

Ukraine until 2030 (ESCCASU30) (Cabinet of

Ministers of Ukraine, 2021b).

Analysis of this Strategy (Ministry of Ecology and

Natural Resources of Ukraine, 2021) shows that

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agriculture and agricultural land are currently

considered mainly as a source of additional

emissions. The main sources of GHG emissions in

agriculture and land use are internal fermentation and

organic waste management in livestock, mineral

fertilizers and loss of humus (dehumification).

Among the ways to reduce GHG emissions in the

agricultural sector and land use, Land Use Change

and Forestry (LULUCF), ESCCASU30 lists

measures aimed at reproducing organic carbon

content in soils. However, direct sequestration of

carbon by soils is not considered as a mitigation

option. Moreover, the Strategy does not take into

account the amount of carbon sequestration by soils

which is not calculated, yet.

Only forestry considers carbon sequestration in

the planning of forest area increase. However, carbon

Achasova, A., Achasov, A., Titenko, G. and Krivtsov, V.

Some Approaches to Measuring Soil’s Carbon Sequestration Potential in Ukraine.

DOI: 10.5220/0011341000003350

In Proceedings of the 5th International Scientiﬁc Congress Society of Ambient Intelligence (ISC SAI 2022) - Sustainable Development and Global Climate Change, pages 40-50

ISBN: 978-989-758-600-2

 2022 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reser ved

sequestration by soils in the world is one of the most

powerful real mechanisms for reducing GHG in the

atmosphere (The Food and Agriculture Organization,

2020; Abdullah et al., 2018; Lal et al., 2004; Han et

al., 2016). Most of the carbon in terrestrial

ecosystems accumulates in soils.

According to the estimates of (Scharlemann et al.,

2014) for landscapes of cool temperature moist, cool

temperature dry and warm temperature dry zones,

typical for Ukraine, the share of organic carbon

contained in the soil is from 76% (Dry Steppe) to 92%

(Forest-Steppe and Steppe) of the total carbon of

terrestrial ecosystems.

According to the State Forest Resources Agency

of Ukraine (State Forest Resources Agency of

Ukraine, 2021), Ukraine's forest cover is now 15.9%,

and there are plans to increase it to 18% by 2030

(Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, 2021b).

Agricultural land already occupies about 43 million

hectares, i. e. 71.2% of the territory (Land Directory

of Ukraine, 2020).

Geographical location and natural conditions

make Ukraine one of the main producers of

agricultural products in the world. The aggravation of

the global hunger problem requires an increase in

world food production, and therefore Ukraine should

not expect a significant reduction in arable land and

an increase in forest cover. These expectations are not

only unrealistic, but also irrational.

It is obvious that although afforestation is a

necessary measure, the scale of the impact on the

carbon balance in Ukraine's forests is not even close

to that of the agricultural soil. Thus, in our opinion, in

the current Strategy for Adaptation of Ukraine to

Climate Change, the importance of increasing the

humus content in soils is clearly underestimated.

The authors propose to quantify carbon

sequestration, using modeling carbon cycle processes

(The Food and Agriculture Organization, 2020;

Zomer et al., 2017; Lal et al., 2018). The basic model

for the prediction of carbon sequestration is

recognized (FAO, 2020). The Rothamsted carbon

model (RothC) (Coleman and Jenkinson, 2014) is

freely available for the scientific investigation

allowing researchers to predict changes in organic C

content in soil depending on climatic parameters, soil

particle size distribution, application of organic

fertilizers and quantity, and quality of organic

residues entering the soil monthly. The use of the

RothC model is quite promising for Ukraine as well,

but it is currently not adapted to local conditions and

requires a large amount of very specific input

information that limits its application. In addition, in

our opinion, the model does not take into account

such an important aspect as the local potential for

sequestration of organic carbon by soils, which

depends on the specific thermodynamic conditions of

soil formation.

In our opinion, determining the upper limit of

possible accumulation of carbon in the soil is

fundamentally important in predicting its

sequestration because it allows researchers to develop

specific measures for specific areas.

Quite a few researchers emphasize that the rate of

carbon sequestration by soils is not constant and it

gradually decreases until the soil reaches a certain

equilibrium level of humus content (Lal et al., 2018).

However, there is no consensus on exactly how this

slowdown in sequestration occurs and how to

quantify its pace. This happens due to the complex

processes of organic matter transformation in soils

and a great variety of soils, keeping in mind

possible combinations of soil formation factors that

affect the course of carbon accumulation.

Thus, when estimating the sequestration potential,

most studies assess carbon sequestration rate of soil,

as "constant during the first 30-50 years". The source

of this approach can be the work of a recognized

authority in assessing the carbon sequestration

potential of R. Lal and his colleagues. They

approximate time to achieve equilibrium of the soil

carbon system by stimulating carbon sequestration,

which, according to their estimates, is 25-50 years for

most soils (Lal et al., 2018).

However, it is obvious that the change in the rate

of carbon sequestration over time will depend not

only on natural and climatic conditions and the

amount and quality of organic matter entering the

soil, but also on soil condition, and in particular the

degree of degradation (here by degradation we mean

the processes that lead to the loss of organic matter).

However, it is obvious that the change in the rate of

carbon sequestration over time will depend not only

on natural and climatic conditions and the amount and

quality of organic matter entering the soil, but also on

soil condition, the degree of degradation. The relative

share of lost organic carbon compared to equilibrium

non-degraded soils characterizes the degradation

degree. It determines the undersaturation of the soil

with carbon, and, consequently, the temporal

dynamics of carbon sequestration. Kogut et al. (2021)

determine the active period of sequestration by

introducing the concept of a certain "steady-state

time" of organic carbon content, which, according to

the authors, varies from 30 for medium-plowed

fertilized arable land to 5,000 years for highly eroded

meadows. Although the idea of "characteristic time"

is quite valid, the quantitative assessment of

Some Approaches to Measuring Soil’s Carbon Sequestration Potential in Ukraine

"characteristic time" provided by Kogut et al. (2021)

has, in our opinion, been based on a poorly

substantiated expert judgement, which reduces the

importance of the sequestration potential assessment

results.

An important practical aspect of the quantitative

assessment of carbon sequestration is consideration

of sequestration in the system of CO2 emissions

trading, which is to develop in Ukraine in the near

future (Prohorchuk, 2021). The calculated amount of

sequestered carbon with the receipt of "carbon

certificates", should allow landowners to monetize

the sequestered carbon. To do this, special electronic

services are created, such as multi-sided platform

AgreenaCarbon from Agreena company that allows

the so-called "carbon farmers" to obtain carbon

certificates for sequestered carbon. According to

Agreena's managers, this company is successfully

operating in the EU agricultural sector, and already

has successful experience of cooperating with several

major Ukrainian agricultural producers. Ukrainian

agricultural producers can already sell the obtained

certificates on the international voluntary market of

carbon certificates (Shneider et al., 2019).

In addition, the EU is expected to introduce a so-

called "carbon duty" on agricultural products.

Quantitative evidence of carbon sequestration by soil

will be another way to reduce the costs of farmers.

The objective of the article is to analyze possible

approaches to assessing the potential carbon

sequestration by soils in Ukraine and contribution of

carbon sequestration by soils to the balance of

greenhouse gas emissions for the period up to 2050.

2 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The paper considers the carbon sequestration

potential of soils (SOCseq) as a characteristic of the

maximum potential amount of carbon that can be

absorbed and sustained by the soil, using the

equation:

PSOC

= SOC

- SOC

(1)

Here: SOC0 – potentially possible stable content of

organic carbon in the soil;

SOC1 – soil organic carbon (SOC) content at the time

of sequestration potential assessment.

Whilst there are no difficulties in determining the

current SOC1 content, estimating the potential SOC

content in the soil is not an easy task.

The content of humus in soils is a natural result of

the interactions among a range of factors, forming one

or another type of soil. Thus, these factors limit

possible accumulation of organic carbon in mineral

soils. This is noticeable in studies of humus

accumulation on rock dumps where the process of

soil formation began under the influence of self-

developed vegetation. Such dumps are, in fact, a

natural model of carbon sequestration. In fact, they

allow us to trace the real process of carbon

accumulation over time.

The authors built a model of humus accumulation

according to Makhonina (2004) for the conditions of

forest-steppe and forest landscapes of the Urals,

Russia, shown in Fig.1. These simulations

demonstratea general trend of humus accumulation

processes. The most intensive processes of organic

carbon accumulation occurred in the soils studied by

Makhonina (2004) in the first 30-40 years.

Figure 1: Changes in the average annual amount of

accumulated carbon depending on the age of the soil.

However, this process has not stopped even in

soils aged 200 years, i.e. the accumulation has not

reached the balance yet. According to calculations by

Makhonina, it takes 400 to 1500 years for soils to

reach an equilibrium level of humus content. Similar

data were obtained for the conditions of the Crimea

(Ergina, 2013), where studies of different ages of

soils show that it takes about 2000 years for soils to

achieve a balanced humus state. Lysetsky, Stolba and

Goleusov (2016), give a similar order of values in

estimating the characteristic time of equilibrium by

soil, indicating that the time of equilibrium and

slowing of soil processes reaches 1400-1600 years.

Probably, it is the content of organic matter

established in soils after they reach "carbon balance"

(i.e. equilibrium state) that we can consider the

maximum potential level of organic carbon in soils. It

is the upper maximum limit of carbon accumulation

SOC

in determining the sequestration potential.

However, in real conditions of high soil plowing,

it is almost impossible to find natural soil standards

ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

to determine the sequestration potential. A number of

Ukrainian researchers have repeatedly discussed the

problem of lack of standards for monitoring the soils

of Ukraine (Medvedev, 2012).

It should also be noted that SOC0 content of

virgin soils is the maximum possible level of carbon

accumulation that cannot actually be achieved in

intensive agricultural production. That should be

taken into consideration in calculations of the

sequestration potential. According to Körschens

(2021), this is only possible if 7 billion people refuse

to eat. Any agricultural use of soils causes a decrease

in their organic carbon content and makes it

impossible to maintain its amount at the "virgin"

level.

Dehumification, as opposed to humus

accumulation, can also last indefinitely. Experience

shows that the processes of dehumification of soils,

provoked by their plowing, occur most intensively in

the first decades after plowing, then the process slows

down (Degtyarev, 2011; Chendev et al., 2011;

Ivanov, A. L. (Ed.), 2013). However, the loss of

organic carbon due to its mineralization continues in

arable soils not tens but hundreds of years after the

plowing of virgin land. Thus, (Chendev et al., 2011)

has found that although the loss of organic carbon due

to mineralization of soil organic matter occurs most

intensely in the first 50-70 years after plowing, it

further continues, although less intensively. SOC

losses were recorded (Chendev et al., 2011) in

chernozems plowed for 140-240 years.

Fig.2 shows traditional ideas about the course of

dehumification of soils during plowing.

Figure 2: Time course of soil dehumification after plowing

(Ivanov, A. L. (Ed.), 2013).

According to the results of monitoring surveys,

Ukraine's soils continue to lose organic matter

because of their long-term agricultural use. Official

data on the change in humus content in soils today use

the analysis of literature sources, starting with the first

surveys by V.V. Dokuchaev (1882) and continuous

soil and agrochemical surveys conducted in Ukraine

by the State Institution "Soils Protection Institute of

Ukraine".

Fortunately, dehumification, in contrast to, for

example, salinization of soils, is a reversible process.

The humus lost by the soil is able to recover, and this

is what determines the potential ability of soils to

sequester carbon.

As discussed above, it is difficult to establish the

time of equilibrium during soil recarbonization, and

the conditional 20-30 years used in the calculations

now do not reflect real ability of the soil to

accumulate carbon. Therefore, in our opinion, it is

more rational and realistic to proceed not from time

but from the quantitative potential of organic carbon

accumulation, calculating it by equation 1. The rate

of sequestration and approach time of the maximum

SOC0 content will depend on the measures taken to

reproduce the SOC content.

Figure 3 shows the change in organic carbon

content in the soils of Ukraine, calculated from

officially published data on the dynamics of humus

content in soils (Baliuk et al., 2016).

Figure 3: Decrease of SOC (%) content in Ukrainian farm

soils (built on the data of Baliuk et al., 2016).

As it is clear from Figure 3, the SOC content in

soils is steadily declining, and the rate of organic

carbon loss calculated on these data, does not

decrease over time (Fig. 4).

Some increase in the average SOC content in

Polissya is not due to improved soil conditions, but to

the removal of the least fertile low-humus soils from

agricultural use. Therefore, we formed the sample for

subsequent surveys from samples of more humus-rich

soils compared to the previous ones. In contrast, in

Some Approaches to Measuring Soil’s Carbon Sequestration Potential in Ukraine

the Forest-Steppe and Steppe of Ukraine, the rate of

SOC losses only increased.

Figure 4: Average annual losses SOC in Ukraine t/ha.

This is easy to explain, as the intensity of soil use

was constantly increasing, but organic fertilizers were

almost not applied (Baliulk et al., 2016) and increased

yields were due to depletion of soil resources. In

addition, an important factor in the constant loss of

organic matter is soil erosion, which, according to

expert estimates, currently covers 13,3 million

hectares of arable land in Ukraine (Baliuk et al., 2017)

Table 1 shows the results of the SOCseq

assessment for the 0-30 cm soil layer in Ukraine on

data from fig. 3. The authors used equation 1 for

calculation, for SOC0 - data for 1882, for SOC1 - for

2010.

Table 1: Potential of carbon sequestratition of arable soil in

Ukraine (for 0-30 cm).

Zone

arable

soils

area,

ha*10

The potential of carbon

sequestration in soils (0-30 cm

)

t/ha

Total,

t*10

eq-

t*10

Polissia

5,14 4,2 23,3 3,1 85,3

Forest-

Steppe 11,73 27,6 350,3 46,2 1284,3

Steppe

15,58 22,8 384,2 50,7 1408,9

Total

32,45 21,5 757,7 100 2778,4

*share from total potential sequestratition

As it is clear from Fig. 3 and 4, major carbon

losses occurred in the soils of the Forest-Steppe and

Steppe of Ukraine with higher natural fertility and

those used more intensively in agricultural

production.

Therefore, the soils of the Forest-Steppe and

Steppe account for almost 97% of the mass of carbon,

which today is potentially capable of sequestering the

soils of Ukraine. The total sequestration potential

estimated in this way for Ukraine is 757,7 million

tons, or 2,78 billion tons of CO2eq. Assuming that we

can achieve this level of sequestration in 50 years, an

annual reduction in CO2 emissions will come to 55.6

million tons. For comparison, this is 1.46 times higher

than the total average annual CO2eq emissions in

agriculture, planned in the framework of NDCs for

2030 (Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of

Ukraine, 2021). The opening of the domestic market

for carbon certificates will make investment in the

reproduction of humus content in the soil mutually

beneficial for farmers, who will increase the fertility

of their lands, and for industrial enterprises that can

receive additional quotas by investing in carbon

sequestration.

The obtained values of carbon sequestration

(Table 1) give a generalized idea of the possible

amounts of emission reductions through carbon

sequestration in the soils of Ukraine. However, they

do not assess in detail the sequestration capacity of

specific soils in the real economy. In addition, it is

difficult to say how correct such calculations are, and

whether the 1882 data can be used as SOC0.

To answer these questions, it is advisable to

compare the calculation data using SOC0 data from

1882 with similar calculations for a particular soil,

where we compare a virgin analogue with arable soil.

We have collected data from modern studies of the

humus condition of soils that meet these

requirements. Table 2 shows the calculated

sequestration potential for the top layer of different

subtypes of chernozems, where SOC0 is the organic

carbon content in virgin soil and SOC1 is in the same

soil plowed for a long time. Classification of

chernozems is presented in the international format

according to the recommendations (International Soil

Reference and Information Centre, 2015).

The sequestration potential, calculated for such

soils, (Table 2) was slightly higher than the values,

obtained on average for Ukraine (tab.1). We can

explain this by the fact that the SOC content in the

studied chernozems was significantly higher than the

average values in the relevant areas of Ukraine.

However, the losses of SOC in plowed soils relative

to the virgin state were very close to the estimated

losses of SOC for 2010 compared to 1882 (Fig. 5).

ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

Relative Losses (RL) are calculated by the

equation:

RL= (SOC

- SOC

)*100/ SOC

(2)

RL for data on the zones of Ukraine for 2010 ranged

(Table 2) from 8,2 to 29,3%. The maximum losses

naturally fall on the more fertile soils of the Forest-

Steppe and Steppe. The average relative losses in

plowed chernozems in comparison with virgin land

(Table 2) was 28,8-30,5%.

In our opinion, this similarity of estimates is in favor

of the reliability of sequestration potential estimates,

based on generalized data (Table 1). It also confirms

possible use of data on humus content in soils of

Ukraine in 1882 to assess zonal sequestration

potential at the zonal level and the adequate method

of quantitative estimates.

Table 2: SOC losses and potential of carbon sequestration for some Ukrainian chernosems (for 0-30 cm layer).

Soil Source SOC

SOC

seq

% t/ha

Relative

Losses,

Luvic Chernozem Plisko, 2020 3,65 2,64 1,02 36,54 27,95

Calcic Chernozem Plisko, 2020 2,05 1,72 0,34 12,11 16,59

Halpic Chernozem Kramarenko, 2000 3,40 2,30 1,10 39,68 32,35

Luvic Chernozem

Panasenko, Degtiarev,

2015

4,70 3,32 1,39 49,91 29,57

Luvic Chernozem Tonkha, Yevpak, 2016 4,66 3,32 1,35 48,34 28,89

Halpic Chernozem Tonkha, Yevpak, 2016 3,95 2,27 1,68 60,35 42,46

Average 3,73 2,59 1,15 41,15 29,64

Average for Steppe 3,13 2,10 1,04 37,38 30,47

Average for Forest Steppe 4,34 3,09 1,25 44,93 28,80

Figure 5: Relative losses of SOC in 2010 in soils of Ukraine

for various methods of assessing the initial carbon level.

Thus, the calculated values of the potential of

carbon sequestration by the soils of Ukraine can

supplement the ESCCASU30 at the regional level.

However, the implementation of any action strategy

becomes real only if there is a reliable method of

transferring this strategy to the local level.

Here, only limited number of farms can apply this

approach because, as mentioned above, there are

hardly any virgin analogues of arable land left in

Ukraine.

To solve the problem, we can calculate the

potential level of carbon accumulation in soils, using

calculated coefficients as described below.

Studies of Ukrainian soil scientists have

established a quantitative dependence of humus

accumulation in soils depending on their genesis,

hydrothermal conditions of soil formation and

particle size distribution of soil-forming rocks. To

characterize the ability of different types of soils to

accumulate humus (Polupan et al., 2008), they

propose a number of calculation coefficients. The

authors propose to use the Coefficient of relative

accumulation of humus (CRAH) to estimate the

potential carbon content in the topsoil. CRAH is the

ratio of humus content in the soil layer 0-30 cm to

10% of the content of physical clay (PhC). PhC is the

sum of soil particles less than 0.01 mm. PhC is the

Some Approaches to Measuring Soil’s Carbon Sequestration Potential in Ukraine

main characteristic of the particle size distribution in

the scientific schools of the countries of the former

USSR.

We calculate CRAH for a soil layer of 0-30 cm by

the equation:

СRAH = H*10/PhC (3)

H – humus content is soil, %

PhC – physical clay content in soil, %

Physical clay is the sum of soil particles with a

size of <0,01 mm. Polupan et al. proposed regression

equations of CRAH dependence on HTC (Selyaninov

hydrothermal coefficient) for the period April-

September for the main soil types and subtypes.

Traditionally in Soviet times, when determining

the humus content in soils, they analytically

determined the content of organic carbon (Corg),

calculated the humus content by multiplying the Corg

content by a factor of 1,724. Accordingly, it is

possible to transform CRAH into Coefficient relative

accumulation of organic carbon (RAC coefficient) by

the equation:

RAC=CRAH/1,724 (4)

The sequestration potential was calculated using

the RAC coefficient for Luvic chernozem (PhC =

48%, RAC = 0,64) and Phaeozem (PhC = 49%, RAC

= 0,42) SOC0 by the equation:

SOC

= (PhC * RAC) / 10 (5)

We obtained SOC1 and PhC values during field

surveys of Rohan’s polygon and Lubotin’s polygon

and Phaeozem. RAC values were calculated

according to formula 3, and CRAH - according to the

regression equations proposed in (Polupan et al.,

2016). The evaluation results are given in Table 3.

Table 3: Estimation of sequestration potential using RAC

coefficient.

Soil SOC

SOC

seq

% t/ha

Luvic

Сhernoze

2,02 1,27 0,75 29,41

Phaeozem 3,09 2,15 0,94 36,83

Both research sites are located on slopes of about

3° in Kharkiv district, Kharkiv region, Ukraine.

Samples were taken on a regular grid at a depth of 10

cm. To calculate the sequestration potential, we

selected data from points diagnosed as non-eroded or

weakly eroded, and calculated the average value of

organic carbon SOC1 for a depth of 0-30 cm for each

soil type. Because the erosion of the soils is poor, we

obtained slightly higher values than in other methods

of calculating relative carbon losses (RL). They are

30,1% for Chernozem and 37,3% for Phaeozem.

However, the order of magnitude of the sequestration

potential in all these methods of evaluation is close.

There is another important underestimated aspect

in the assessment of the soil potential for carbon

sequestration, when using equilibrium level of carbon

content in the soils of placors as an SOC0. Sloping

soils, of which more than 40% are in Ukraine, differ

from plakor soils in the course of soil-forming

processes and, accordingly, in the ability to

accumulate organic carbon. In addition, most of the

sloping soils are eroded to some degree, which also

affects the intensity of carbon sequestration.

In Ukraine, soil-forming conditions on slopes, as

a rule, are more arid (xeromorphism) than on placors.

Thus, many sloping soils are xeromorphic, i.e. formed

in relatively arid conditions. According to the laws of

humus profile of soil formation in Ukraine conditions

(Polupan et al., 2008), xeromorphic soils have a

reduced profile and lower potential of humus content.

Therefore, they have lower carbon sequestration

potential compared to modal soils with the same

degree of dehumification .

Soil erosion affects SOCseq in the opposite way.

The greater the degree of soil erosion, the more

carbon it is able to potentially accumulate. It is clear

that for this reason we must stop erosion processes.

Considering the opposite effects of erosion and

xeromorphism when estimating the potential for soil

sequestration, we propose to use empirical models of

the dependence of SOC content in the arable layer on

the parameters characterizing the heterogeneity of

sloping soils.

Using the geoinformation relief analysis, the

authors developed a method of modeling the potential

humus content in chernozem soils of slopes the

authors have analyzed a large sample of undegraded

chernozem soils of forest-steppe and steppe of

Ukraine, and successfully used it to assess slope

erosion (Achasov et al., 2019a, 2019b). The same

approach, i.e. modeling of the potential carbon

content in the soil depending on the spatial

heterogeneity of hydrothermal conditions and particle

size distribution, is the most promising for the spatial

assessment of carbon sequestration potential at the

level of individual farms. Our assessment of the

chernozem sequestration potential, typical of the

Lyubotyn research testing ground, also gave average

values of PSOCseq values of about 36 t/ha. However,

ISC SAI 2022 - V International Scientiﬁc Congress SOCIETY OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

the advantage of the method of geoinformation

modeling is in the possibility of obtaining not point,

but continuous estimates of SOCseq, taking into

account the spatial heterogeneity of humus

accumulation conditions.

Therefore, the authors propose four possible ways

to assess the potential of soil for SECseq carbon

sequestration:

1. By estimating the difference between

historically known data and the results of modern soil

and agrochemical surveys. As our research has

shown, such estimates give results close to those of

real surveys of virgin soils. Therefore, they are quite

acceptable for estimating the contribution of carbon

sequestration to total emission reductions at the state

level.

2. By assessing the difference between arable soils

and virgin soil analogues. The method has significant

limitations, as there are almost no fertile virgin soils

left on the plateaus in Ukraine. Fallow lands cannot

be a full-fledged analogue of virgin soil because they

are usually partially restored soil that has not reached

equilibrium.

3. By determining the theoretically possible level

of carbon accumulation in soils at the level of the

subtype of the calculated coefficients of dependence

of humus accumulation on the content of physical

clay (CRAH).

4. By estimating a theoretically possible level of

carbon accumulation based on empirical models. In

contrast to the first two methods, this method will

give slightly reduced values of the sequestration

potential, as empirical models use the parameters of

arable soils, already dehumified relative to virgin

analogues. This approach will lead to more realistic

values of sequestration, if used in intensive

agricultural production in compliance with

technological requirements for the preservation of

organic matter.

Simulation of carbon sequestration process is also

possible by using mathematical models of humus

accumulation, for example RothC (Coleman and

Jenkinson, 2014; Shirato, 2020). However, this model

needs verification and adaptation to the conditions of

Ukraine. We do not know what the upper limit of

carbon accumulation is. Moreover, the course of

simulated sequestration rigidly relates to climatic

parameters and quantity of coming organic residues

in conditions of real farms are not always possible to

predict.

4 CONCLUSIONS

In order to achieve carbon neutrality of the economy,

it is necessary to focus efforts on the reproduction of

humus content in the soils of agricultural lands.

Dehumified over the long history of agricultural use,

Ukraine's soil can now be a huge reservoir for

sequestration of organic carbon. According to rough

estimates, Ukraine's arable land alone is potentially

capable of absorbing 757,7 million tons or 2,78

billion tons of CO2eq of carbon, which is 7,8 times

higher than projected annual emissions for Ukraine's

entire economy according to NDCs until 2050

(Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of

Ukraine, 2021).

The authors propose four ways to establish the

potential for sequestration of organic carbon in the

soils of Ukraine. We can use each of them at a certain

level of formation and implementation of the

ESCCASU30. In particular, using the first method

(according to agrochemical surveys and archival data

from 1882), we recommended to assess the general

and regional potential of carbon sequestration.

The second method (virgin standards) has limited

application due to the lack of standards for all soils of

Ukraine, but can be used locally if there is a standard

available. It is advisable to use the third method

(using RAC cofficient) to design specific measures at

the level of administrative districts and communities.

To implement the developed measures in specific

fields and to audit sequestration for the introduction

of carbon certificates, the authors recommend to use

the fourth method (geoinformation analysis of the

terrain).

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