Risk Assessment of the Global Energy Interconnection System
I. M. Aliev
Chechen State University, Grozny, Russia
Keywords: Information system, risks, energy system, analysis, resources, attacks.
Abstract: As the largest artificial physical system to be built in the near future, the Global Energy Interconnection (GEI)
is characterized by a close relationship between energy and information systems. Information system risks
will have a major impact on the security of power systems. In this article, with a number of identified risk
factors for information systems, a risk assessment model for related physical-information systems is proposed.
A risk assessment method is presented.
1 INTRODUCTION
Research started in the 1970s in risk assessment and
information systems management aims to control the
increasing complexity of system operation and reduce
system uncertainty. Meanwhile, the development of
the information system itself introduces new risks.
Risk assessment methods were originally applied in
software projects in the field of information
technology, and later were extended to other areas.
Recent research covers many theories, methods and
phenomena in various layers of information
technology. But most of them are empirical and
qualitative, and difficult to adapt to the growing
uncertainty and ambiguity that information systems
face. Based on rationality and ignoring the influence
of irrational behavior, risk assessment and
management of information systems can be roughly
divided into three stages. First, identify the various
risk factors of the system and take appropriate risk
control measures. Secondly, modeling the risk
management process in the form of identifying,
analyzing, assessing, eliminating and verifying risks.
Third, establishing a relationship between system
process properties and levels of uncertainty to obtain
a general risk profile to develop more specific
response solutions. To solve the problem of
sustainable energy development, a global energy
connection is proposed. GEI is a highly integrated
grid-based energy system compatible with many
forms of energy to achieve optimal distribution and
global sustainability. The information system plays
an important role in the implementation of the GEI,
and risk assessment and management are key issues
that need to be addressed.
In this article, we make the following
contributions. Based on physical system and
information system risk measurement, we present a
quantitative GEI information system risk model and
evaluation method. We then suggest human attacks,
communication quality problems, and natural
disasters as risk factors for information systems
(Egorova, 2013). We performed simulations based on
various information systems to validate our analysis
and illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed
method.
2 MATERIALS AND METHODS
Risk in this article refers to the likelihood of accidents
and their severity. The purpose of risk assessment is
to enable system operators to systematically predict
possible failures and take appropriate safety
measures. The use of risk assessment can quantify the
likelihood and severity of an accident. As a result, it
can more fully reflect the impact of the failure on the
entire power system. In physical systems, different
devices operating under different conditions have
different failure probabilities and can affect the power
system in different ways. The differences between
them are difficult to characterize using traditional
analysis, which can only qualitatively reflect the
consequences of accidents. Risk measurement based
on uncertainty analysis can compensate for this
shortcoming (Ralph, 2011). The main advantage of
risk measurement over traditional methods of
Aliev, I.
Risk Assessment of the Global Energy Interconnection System.
DOI: 10.5220/0011556800003524
In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Methods, Models, Technologies for Sustainable Development (MMTGE 2022) - Agroclimatic Projects and Carbon Neutrality, pages
169-171
ISBN: 978-989-758-608-8
Copyright
c
2023 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
169
analysis is the quantification of risk factors. Taking
into account both the probability and the severity of
accidents, the risk measure can accumulate the risks
of all components, which constitutes the overall risk
signal of the electrical system. At the same time, the
risk signal is time sensitive and can accumulate over
a period of time to provide system operators with
information for decision making. From a risk
management perspective, qualitative and quantitative
analysis methods are used to systematically analyze
the vulnerabilities of information systems and the risk
factors they face. Then propose adjusted risk
management to minimize negative impacts and
economic losses. The measurement of information
system risk should contain 4 main factors, including
information assets.
System, vulnerability of information resources,
threats to information resources and implemented
security measures (Egorova, 2015). The vulnerability
level represents the severity of the vulnerability of an
asset, and the threat level is represented by the object
threatened by the threat, the subject of the threat, the
frequency of the threat, etc. Based on the risk
management model, the measurement of the risk of
an information system can quantify the risk signal
through the analysis of potential accidents. With the
development of information and communication
technologies and automatic control technologies, the
traditional power system has turned into a complex
interactive large system consisting of three parts: a
global physical system, a modern information and
communication system, and a developed monitoring
system. However, the introduction and widespread
use of advanced information technologies can also
adversely affect the reliability and safety of the
electrical system. In this large system, the failure of
one component of the information system can affect
the entire power system. Therefore, it is important to
monitor the information system in real time and
ensure fast and accurate delivery of information about
the power system to the system operator. In a highly
coupled physical information system, risks in both the
physical system and the information system can lead
to disasters (Porfiriev, 2010).
The risk factors of information systems can be
divided into three aspects, namely: human attacks,
communication quality problems and natural
disasters. The risks of the GEI information system
have increased significantly due to the
interconnection of physical systems and information
systems. Attacks against GEI information systems
can not only damage information systems, but also
cause failures of physical systems beyond the
physical boundaries of the information systems. In
addition to human attacks, communication quality
issues and natural disasters also cause problems for
the GEI. In order to realize the properties of high
efficiency, self-healing, high reliability and security
in the smart grid, the amount of information that
needs to be transmitted and processed will be much
larger than the current one. Due to the high
connectivity of physical-information systems,
information security is becoming increasingly
important, and human attacks can be dangerous.
Information intruders can attack one or more
communication nodes in an information network,
which can lead to a failure to download and transfer
information. Human attacks most often target
important nodes (Nikoláeva, 2018). Attackers try to
inflict as much damage as possible with minimal cost.
3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
By evaluating the risk of an information system, it is
possible to refine the security status of an information
system. Information systems risk assessment is the
basis for the optimal distribution of information
systems protection tools. Based on the results of the
risk assessment, information system security policies
and security problem solving strategies can be
proposed to control the operation of the information
system. At present, the main power lines of China's
regional power systems are made of optical fiber.
When sudden natural disasters occur, such as
hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, or landslides, the
communication network may be destroyed, resulting
in reduced or even paralyzed communication network
capacity. The probability that a natural disaster will
damage all communications in the area of the event
can be obtained from historical data statistics
(Porfiriev, 2010). Power system risk assessment has
been focused since the 1980s, but most research is
focused on the primary system. Currently, the
primary systemic risk assessment of the power system
is being systematically studied. There are relatively
advanced methods of analysis and evaluation, and
they have been applied to the operation of electrical
networks. But from the point of view of information
systems, studies on the overall risk assessment of the
system are still lacking. And there is still little
research on the role of information system risk in the
primary power supply system.
In accordance with various risk factors, a model
of the probability of failure of an information system
node is created. From the point of view of the human
attack factor, information intruders, as a rule, attack
the most important communication nodes. From the
MMTGE 2022 - I International Conference "Methods, models, technologies for sustainable development: agroclimatic projects and carbon
neutrality", Kadyrov Chechen State University Chechen Republic, Grozny, st. Sher
170
point of view of the problem factor of communication
quality, the state of the communication device
installed at each node plays an important role in the
security of the information system. From the point of
view of the factor of natural disasters, natural
disasters can lead to the simultaneous failure of
several nodes in the region. By evaluating the risk of
an information system, it is possible to refine the
security status of the information system. IT system
risk assessment is the basis for the optimal
deployment of IT system security resources. Based on
the results of the risk assessment, information system
security strategies and security problem solving
strategies can be proposed to control the operation of
the information system (Taylor, 2012; Avgerou,
2004).
4 CONCLUSIONS
A quantitative risk model for the GEI information
system is proposed that evaluates three risk factors:
human attacks, communication quality problems and
natural disasters. The negative impacts of accidents
on power systems are analyzed with the identification
of key nodes of the information system. Most of the
current work is focused on risk assessment of the
power system and information system, respectively.
Several studies are devoted to the effects of the
connection of a physical-information system. The
main contributions of this article are the proposed
quantitative risk model and estimation method. The
simulation results of a typical test power system and
two communication networks confirm the
effectiveness of the proposed evaluation model and
evaluation method.
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