Research on Adaptive Management of Water Resources of the Yellow
Sea and Bohai Sea Based on System Dynamics Model: A Case of
Longkou City, Shandong Province
Lei Qiu
a
, Ting Wang
b*
and Jingyi Huang
Management Science Institute of Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
b
15852932783@163.com
Keywords: Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Coast, Seawater Intrusion, Water Resources, Adaptive Management, System
Dynamics Model.
Abstract:
In the role of nature - society dual driving force, the problems of groundwater intrusion and deterioration of
water quality in the Coastal Areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are becoming more and more serious,
which hinder the sustainable development of economy and society. In the face of increasingly complex water
resources problems, water resources management should be more flexible and adaptable. Based on the three
dimensions of exposure-sensitivity-adaptability, this paper constructs a SD model of "adaptability" and
determines the regulatory factors according to the combination of regional policy and economic structure,
etc.,then designs the water - saving - oriented water resource adaptability management policy scenario,
conducts quantitative evaluation with Longkou City as an example , and makes policy suggestions for the
water resource adaptability management in the coastal areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. This study
provides a new solution to the problem of seawater intrusion, and provides a new theoretical support and
practical basis for water resource adaptation policies.
1 INTRODUCTION
With the increasing contradiction between the goals
of economic development and groundwater
exploitation, the hydrodynamic balance between
seawater and fresh water has been destroyed. It leads
to the decline of groundwater level and a series of
water ecological problems, especially in the coastal
areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, where the
water resources are scarce and groundwater
overexploitation intensity is large. Therefore, in
order to realize the sustainable development of
economy, society and ecology in the coastal areas,
measures must be taken to strengthen the water
resources management in the coastal areas of the
Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, especially the
groundwater management (Zhong, 2019), to
implement the strictest water resources management
system.
Adaptive management originated from Holling, a
ecologists in 1978 (HOLLING, 1978), who studies
the practice of complex ecosystems, and puts
forward adaptive management as the management
framework to solve complex systems. Whipple
(WHIPPLE, 1998), Werrity (WERRITTY, 2002),
Middelkoop (MIDDELKOOP, 2001), and a number
of foreign scholars have discussed the restoration of
watershed, wetland and coastal areas, the use of
water-saving irrigation technology, flood early
warning and dispatching technology and other
management techniques and methods from the
perspective of adaptability. Domestic scholars
innovatively put forward adaptive management
theory and use adaptive management method to carry
out empirical analysis. Based on the uncertainty of
system management, Tong Jinping and Wang
Huimin (Tong, 2006; Wang, 2016)
think
adaptive
management realizes system health and sustainable
management of resources. Xia Jun et al
(Xia, 2015)
puts forward the theory and method of water
resources adaptability combining multi-information
analysis and decision-making under climate change.
Based on the CGE model, Li Changyan (Li, 2014)
brought
the vulnerability of water resources into the
framework of water resources adaptive management,
compiled the SAM table, and constructed policy
Qiu, L., Wang, T. and Huang, J.
Research on Adaptive Management of Water Resources of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Based on System Dynamics Model: A Case of Longkou City, Shandong Province.
DOI: 10.5220/0011755200003607
In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Public Management, Digital Economy and Internet Technology (ICPDI 2022), pages 699-705
ISBN: 978-989-758-620-0
Copyright
c
2023 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
699
simulations under different scenarios for
comparative analysis to study the adaptive
management ability of water resources.
Comprehensive analysis of relevant studies at home
and abroad shows that, on the one hand, the challenge
of adaptive management of water resources is mainly
due to the uncertainty of the external environment, so
adaptive management policies are according to the
characteristics of regional development. It is
beneficial to reduce the vulnerability of water
resources. On the other hand, the adaptive
management of water resources in China is mostly
from the perspective of climate change, but there are
few studies on the adaptive management of water
resources under seawater intrusion. Therefore, this
paper constructs the analysis framework of water
resources adaptive management system, sets the
policy scenario, analyses which policy can improve
the contradiction between water supply and demand
and ecological environment, promotes economic
development, alleviates the economic and social
water use dilemma, and provides the theoretical and
methodological basis for regional water resources
adaptive management analysis.
2 ANALYSIS OF WATER
RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
China's coastal areas have superior geographical
location and dense population. More than 70% of
large and medium-sized cities gathered here. With
the rapid economic and social development of coastal
areas, there are great differences of precipitation
from temporal and spatial in coastal areas. Surface
water can no longer meet the increasing economic
and social development needs. People continue to
extract groundwater, resulting in a continuous
decline in groundwater level. Sea water invades
freshwater aquifers and pollutes groundwater
sources, making limited groundwater resources more
scarce. The Mainland coastline of our country
stretches for 19000 km. The seawater intrusion
mainly occurs in the coastal areas with large amount
of groundwater resources exploitation, such as
Shandong, Tianjin and other places. After the
seawater intrusion was discovered in Dalian coastal
area in 1964, it was discovered in other provinces in
the late 1970s. During 2014, the total area of
seawater intrusion in China exceeded 2000 km2,
which caused damage and loss to groundwater
ecological environment and local economic
development. The seawater intrusion in the coastal
area makes the groundwater quality deteriorate. At
the same time, it reduces the groundwater
availability, destroys the production and living
equipment, and brings serious influence to the
industrial and agricultural production and the
people's life in the coastal area. The coastal area of
the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea is located in the plain.
The land is fertile. The industry and agriculture are
more developed. At present, due to the invasion of
seawater, the water quality deteriorates and causes
soil salinization. Most farmland reduces production
by 20%~40%, which reduces the supply capacity of
water resources and restricts the development of
regional industry and agriculture. On the one hand,
the unreasonable groundwater overexploitation
causes the groundwater level to decrease greatly, the
hydrodynamic balance between seawater and fresh
water is destroyed, and the vulnerability of water
resources is obvious. On the other hand, seawater
intrusion makes groundwater quality worse and
supply capacity weakened, which leads to
salinization of cultivated land and the enhancement
of water resources vulnerability, that restricts the
sustainable development of economy and society.
Therefore, in order to maximize social welfare,
water users and relevant government departments
adopt economic and non-economic means to adapt
water resources policies, such as open source, water
and pollution control, and industrial structure
adjustment to adjust social structure, industrial
structure, and social function, alleviate the
contradiction of water resources, improve the
vulnerability of water resources, and promote
sustainable regional economic and social
development from the demand side and supply side,
as well as the combination of long-term and short-
term approaches. In the case of clarifying the water
resources problems, the adaptive policies of
designing different schemes are incorporated into the
SD model. Different policy scenario effects are
adjusted and controlled by controlling the response
variables.
3 CONSTRUCTION OF SD
MODEL FOR ADAPTIVE
WATER RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT
Using the relationship between water resources
supply and demand, economic development and
population growth as the medium, maintaining the
interrelation of various elements within the whole
ICPDI 2022 - International Conference on Public Management, Digital Economy and Internet Technology
700
Figure 1: System Flow Chart.
system, forming an organic whole that restricts each
other, using Vensim software to design the SD model
of water resources adaptive management, in which
the variables such as GDP added value, population
quantity, water shortage index and so on combine the
system organically. Water demand for production and
life and water availability determine the water
scarcity index. By exerting pressure on the population
growth rate and GDP growth rate, water scarcity
index influences the economic and social operation,
thus coupling with the economic and social system
and influencing each other, as shown in figure 1. As
for the parameters in the model, on the one hand, they
are sorted out, analysed and calculated according to
the water resources bulletin and statistical yearbook
over the years; on the other hand, data are processed
according to mathematical calculation method,
arithmetic average method and table function
method, etc. For difficult-to-obtain data or to predict
the future change trend of the dependent variable, on
the one hand, according to the development control of
population and economic growth in the 13th Five-
Year Plan and other scholars' relevant literature
research, on the other hand, regression analysis
method is adopted to fit and comparing the simulated
data and real data, so that the parameters in the system
run more fit the real data.
4
EVIDENCE-BASED RESEARCH
Longkou City has rapid economic development,
dense population and serious groundwater over
mining. With rapid economic development and
surface water resources being insufficient, the two
key monitoring rivers in Longkou City cut, increasing
the demand for groundwater freshwater resources,
resulting in further expansion of seawater invasion
scope, that restricted agricultural development. Some
farmers have suffered heavy losses. It can be
predicted that a series of problems caused by the
future water shortage and the uncertainty of the
external environment will still restrict the economic
and social development of Longkou City. Taking
Longkou City as an example, taking water saving as
the goal, establishing water - saving society, using SD
model to simulate water resources adaptability
management, and discuss the impact of different
policies on water resources vulnerability, so as to
provide ideas for policy makers. According to the
present situation of economic and social development
of Longkou City, this paper formulates the adaptive
management target of water resources in Longkou
City by 2030 from five schemes. The adaptive
management ability of water resources was
investigated from the aspects of GDP added value,
total water demand, available water supply, balance
between supply and demand, sewage discharge, etc.
Specific policy scenario programmes are shown in
tables 1 below:
Research on Adaptive Management of Water Resources of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Based on System Dynamics Model: A Case of
Longkou City, Shandong Province
701
Table 1: Design of policy options for adaptive management of water resources.
Programme Content
Programme I
Current status
continuation
Taking the situation of water resources and economic development
of Longkou City in the past ten years (2008-2017), combined with
the outline of the Thirteenth five-year Master Plan for National
Economic and Social Development of Longkou City, setting 2017
as base year, the simulation is carried out according to the present
situation.
Programme II Open Source
On the basis of scheme one, increase the water transfer of South-to-
North Water transfer. In this paper, according to the 2017 water
regulation, a certain amount of water regulation is added each year
to simulate, and the maximum adjustable water quantity is
controlled according to the maximum adjustable water quantity of
Longkou.Therefore , the regulation variable of " South - to - North
Water Diversion Project " is introduced to increase the water
adjustment of 1.5 million m
3
every yea
r
.
Programme III
Streaming Pollution
Control Type
The Streaming Pollution Control Type mainly includes two aspects:
throttling and pollution control. By improving water efficiency of
water resources, this paper adjusts the water consumption of ten
thousand yuan industrial added value to 7 m
3
.
The effective
utilization coefficient of agricultural irrigation was adjusted to 0.75,
and the effect of water price on demand was adjusted to 0.95. The
reuse rate of water resources sewage is 40% . The water supply of
reclaimed water resources is increased.
Programme IV Industrial restructuring
In the economic development of Longkou City, industry is pillar
industry, and it belongs to high water consumption and high
pollution industry. Therefore, on the basis of scheme one, this paper
reduces the proportion of industry to 49%, increases the proportion
of service industry, and optimizes the industrial structure.
Programme V Integrated
Synthesizing the above four schemes, consider increasing income,
reducing expenditure, pollution control and industrial structure
ad
j
ustment.
The parameters of the five control variables are shown in Table 2:
Table 2: Policy scenarios and parameters for adaptive management of water resources.
Variable
Programme
I
Programme
II
Programme
III
Programme
IV
Programme
V
The amount of water transferred from south
to north water diversion project (million m
3
)
0 150 0 0 150
Water consumption per ten thousand yuan of
industrial added value (m
3
)
9 9 7 9 7
Efficient utilization coefficient of farmland
irrigation (%)
70 70 75 70 75
Sewage recovery rate (%) 25 25 40 25 40
Water price regulation factor 1 1 0.95 1 0.95
The proportion of industrial added value (%) 54 54 54 49 49
By comparing the simulation value of the model
with the real data, this paper selects the GDP and
population as the test variables to judge whether the
model can truly reflect the actual situation of
Longkou City. As shown in tables 3 and 4, the
simulation errors of GDP and population are within
a reasonable range of 10%, which indicates that the
model can better fit the actual situation of economic
and social development in Longkou City.
ICPDI 2022 - International Conference on Public Management, Digital Economy and Internet Technology
702
Table 3: GDP Parameter Test for Model .
Unit: $100 million
Year GDP simulated values GDP actual value
Error
2008 531 570 0.068 4
2009 590.63 623 0.052 0
2010 670.99 680 0.013 2
2011 754.38 778 0.030 4
2012 845.31 840 -0.006 3
2013 933.13 935 0.002 0
2014 1 029.40 1 002.8 -0.026 5
2015 1 088.55 1 035 -0.051 7
2016 1 160.36 1 110 -0.045 4
2017 1 253.52 1 190.935 8 -0.052 6
Table 4: Demographic parameters of the model.
Unit :10 000
Year Population simulation values Actual population Error
2008 63.44 63.44 0
2009 63.43 63.38 -0.000 79
2010 63.38 63.3 -0.001 30
2011 63.36 63.4 0.000 63
2012 63.32 63.49 0.002 74
2013 63.33 63.54 0.003 24
2014 63.29 63.53 0.003 78
2015 63.46 63.7 0.003 71
2016 63.40 63.63 0.003 54
2017 63.49 63.69 0.003 07
Table 5: Results of 5 programme simulation variables in 2030.
Variable Programme I Programme II Programme III Programme IV Programme V
GDP added value (RMB 1 0 0 million) 2 013.68 2 145.30 2 142.62 2 046.76 2 286.38
Total water demand (million m
3
) 19 047.83 19 690.32 16 958.34 18 288.29 16 967.32
Total water supply (million m
3
) 11 993.64 13 967.45 12 376.14 11 936.96 14 233.54
Difference between supply and demand
(million m
3
)
7 054.18 5 722.87 4 582.20 6 351.32 2 733.78
quantity of wastewater effluent (million m
3
) 1 978.82 2 086.41 1 640.36 1 855.79 1 601.26
Research on Adaptive Management of Water Resources of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Based on System Dynamics Model: A Case of
Longkou City, Shandong Province
703
According to the reasonable prediction of
Longkou city's regional development, the 13th Five-
Year Plan, water conservancy planning, and related
measurement software, the results of the change of
other variables caused by policy changes are
analysed. The five schemes are simulated and the
forecast results of Longkou City in 2030 are shown in
Table 5.
By comparing the simulation results of the four
schemes with the current scheme one, it is found that
as long as the economy is developed, the water
demand will inevitably increase. The simulation
results of different policy scenarios are analysed as
follows:
The first scheme is the future water requirements
under current development conditions. The gap
between supply and demand is increasing and the
discharge of waste water is rising rapidly. Compared
with the other four schemes GDP the added value is
the lowest. The pressure of water resource will further
increase.
The second scheme is from the supply side, using
the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, giving
priority to the use of overseas water and protecting
the local water resources environment, which is
superior to the fourth scheme, indicating that the
industrial adjustment can not be realized in the short
term and the demand for water resources is high, so
the water conservancy project should play a good
role.
Compared with the first two schemes, the
economic and social water demand of the third
scheme the least, the waste water discharge is less, the
waste sewage discharge and the total water storage
are lower than the second scheme. The overall
implementation effect is higher than the second
scheme.
The GDP added value of the forth scheme is only
higher than that of the first scheme, the short-term
effect is not good and the economy is impacted. The
demand for water resources is still very strong in the
short term.
The fifth scheme is a comprehensive scheme, the
results are better than other schemes, which can not
only alleviate the shortage of supply and demand to a
certain extent, but also develop economy with the
condition of protecting ecological environment.
5 CONCLUSIONS
According to the theoretical basis of SD model and
water resources adaptive management, this paper
constructs the framework of water resources adaptive
management. According to the regional development,
the "exposure-sensitivity-adaptability" analysis of
water resources is regarded as an important reference
standard for adaptive management regulators, and
five different water resources adaptive management
policy schemes are designed by using the SD model.
The simulation results show that on the one hand, we
should make a policy "combination fist" through
system construction. It is necessary to make full use
of the "invisible hand" and "tangible hand" of the
market and the state, combine short-term with long-
term, make joint efforts on the demand side and the
supply side. At the same time, it should give full play
to the power of science and technology to
continuously improve the utilization rate of water
resources and social development.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
China's key R & D Program Project "Research on
Comprehensive Prevention and Management of Sea
Water Invasion in the Coastal Region of Bohai and
Yellow Sea "(Grant No.:2016 YFC0402808)
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Research on Adaptive Management of Water Resources of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea Based on System Dynamics Model: A Case of
Longkou City, Shandong Province
705
