-Reduced Energy Scenarios in Italy: Combined Modelling of

Renewable Energy Sources, CCS and Hydrogen Penetration in the

End-User Uses

Greta Magnolia

, Michela Vellini and Marco Gambini

Dept. of Industrial Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Italy

Keywords: EnergyPlan, Italian NECP, Decarbonisation, Energy Scenarios, Hydrogen, IRES, CCS.

Abstract: Climate change and greenhouse emissions are becoming an important issue to be solved. Europe and the

whole world continuously set new targets on the CO

emitting sectors to accelerate the contribution of the

different States in maintaining the global temperature at acceptable values. The Italian Government has stated

challenging objectives to be achieved on energy and climate matter by 2030. The installation of intermittent

renewable energy systems (IRES), implementation of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) on existing

power plants and hydrogen penetration in the end-user uses could be important technologies to reach these

objectives. This paper analyses future energy scenarios to occur by 2030 through the modelling of the Italian

future energy system in the software EnergyPlan. Results show that the simultaneous demonstration of the

Italian CO

emissions target and low values of electricity curtailments could be obtained through the

diversification of the technologies and the combined modelling of an increase of IRES plants installation,

CCS and hydrogen use as a novel energy vector in different sectors.

1 INTRODUCTION

In November 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (i.e. IPCC) released the Fifth

Assessment Report updating the studies on climate

change and highlighting the important role played by

humans concerning this issue (IPCC, 2014). In the

perspective of reducing this impact on the

environment, in 2015, the historic Paris Agreement

(i.e. COP21) was the first universal and legally

binding agreement on climate change and it

established to limit the global average temperature

increase at 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels

(European Commission, 2016). During these years,

the European Union has established a series of

energetic and environmental pledges aimed at

defining a European Strategy for the meeting of the

EU's Paris Agreement commitments. In 2019, the

“Clean Energy for all Europeans package” (i.e. CEP)

was published (European Commission, 2017) and,

among the other requests, it also established the

Member States to draw up 10-year National

Integrated Energy and Climate Plans (i.e. NECPs)

Corresponding Author

aimed at defining the representative national tools for

the achievement of the EU climate objectives and

targets.

According to these directives, in 2019, the Italian

Government published the so-called “National

Energy and Climate Plan” defining the roadmap in

terms of energy transition. The main objectives to be

reached by 2030 are very challenging (Ministero

dello Sviluppo Economico, 2019):

1) reduction of CO

emissions in non-emission

trading systems (i.e. non-ETS) sectors of 40%

compared with 1990;

2) decrease of the primary energy requirement by

43%;

3) coal phase-out in the electricity production by

2025.

M.Vellini et al. (Vellini et al., 2020) proposed

different configurations for the 2030 Italian

electricity sector achieving the desired environmental

performance. Results highlighted how energy

efficiency is a primary necessity for pursuing the

environmental objectives in a cost-effective way.

D.Sofia et al. (Sofia et al., 2020) validated the

Magnolia, G., Vellini, M. and Gambini, M.

CO2-Reduced Energy Scenarios in Italy: Combined Modelling of Renewable Energy Sources, CCS and Hydrogen Penetration in the End-User Uses.

DOI: 10.5220/0011902800003536

In Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Water, Ecology and Environment (ISWEE 2022), pages 71-76

ISBN: 978-989-758-639-2; ISSN: 2975-9439

 2023 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

decarbonization scenario expected for Italy in 2030 in

terms of environmental and social benefits by using a

Cost-Benefit Analysis (i.e. CBA). The results showed

that, in all the sectors, total health co-benefits are

higher than the mitigation cost of achieving the

specific target.

In November 2020, the Italian Government also

published the so-called “National Hydrogen Strategy

-Preliminary Guidelines” (i.e. NHS-PG). This

document aims to define the vision of the Italian

Government on the role that hydrogen can play in the

national decarbonisation pathway. The main

objectives to be reached by 2030 are (Ministero dello

Sviluppo Economico, 2020):

1) 5 GW of installed capacity of electrolyzers;

2) 2% of penetration of hydrogen in the final energy

demand.

Different studies have been executed on the future

energy scenarios in Italy. The majority of these

studies in literature forecasts the reduction of the

greenhouse gases (i.e. GHG) emissions through the

combination of renewable energy sources (i.e. RES)

penetration in the energy production sector and an

electrification of the end-user uses. S.Bellocchi et

al.(Bellocchi et al., 2020) modelled the electrification

of transport and residential heating sectors in support

of renewable penetration. They found out that CO

emissions could be reduced down to approximately

70/75% compared to the 2017 level with a penetration

of IRES of around 65% of the national electricity

demand. E. Bompard et al. (Bompard et al., 2020)

proposed the so-called “electricity triangle” involving

electricity generation from Renewable Energy

Sources, exploitation of electricity as the main energy

vector, and electrification of the final energy uses in

all sectors for the evaluation of the Italian energy

scenario in 2050. According to their study, the

electricity triangle would allow the 68% reduction in

emissions in 2050 compared to 2020 levels.

Colbertaldo et al. (Colbertaldo et al., 2018) modelled

the Italian 2030 and 2050 energy scenarios

considering the interaction between power and

transport sectors through power-to-gas systems for

hydrogen production from excess electricity for fuel

cell vehicles. The results of this study outlined a not

sufficient reduction of GHG emissions even with a

high coverage of hydrogen mobility demand by clean

production.

As for the authors knowledge, in literature there is

not a study which evaluates the meeting of the NECP

targets through the combined modelling of Carbon

Capture and Sequestration and hydrogen penetration

in the different sectors. This work aims at defining the

future CO

-reduced 2030 Italian energy scenario

through the integration of CCS in power plants and

hydrogen production in a power to gas system for

electricity curtailment reduction using the

EnergyPlan software tool.

The first part of the study concerns the model

validation through the simulation of the 2019 Italian

reference energy scenario. The core of the study

follows with the simulation of the 2030 Italian energy

scenarios. A first expected 2030 energy scenario in

Italy is modelled considering to maintain the

proportions of the 2019 energy scenario in the

allocation of primary energy sources and

implementing the NECP estimates concerning RES

penetration, coal phase-out in energy production

sector, total final energy consumptions of the

different sectors and electrification of the end-user

uses. The outputs of this model outline high values of

curtailment of electricity and CO

emissions. To

solve these issues, a second energy scenario is

forecasted starting from the first one and modelling

the combined integration of post-combustion CCS

applied to the gas exhausts from power plants and the

2% of penetration of hydrogen in the end-user uses.

This scenario meets the NECP target on CO

emissions with low values of electricity curtailment,

but the sequestration of 20 Mt of CO

is an important

issue to consider.

2 METHODS

The Italian energy system is modelled through the use

of EnergyPlan tool (EnergyPLAN, 2022). This

software is an input/output model. Inputs are

demands, renewable energy sources, energy plant

capacities, costs and different simulation strategies

defining import/export and excess of electricity

production. Since EnergyPlan simulates energy

scenarios on an hourly basis, additional inputs are

hourly power distributions, defined as the ratio

between power demand at a particular hour and its

yearly peak value, of electricity, heating, cooling and

transport demands. Outputs are given by energy

balances, annual productions, fuel consumption,

import/exports and total costs. The basis of the

simulations is the minimization of the output from

fossil fuel power plants to reduce both primary energy

consumption and CO

emissions and thus to optimize

the system operation from a technical and/or

economic perspective.

ISWEE 2022 - International Symposium on Water, Ecology and Environment

2.1 Validation of EnergyPlan Tool

The validation of EnergyPlan tool for the modelling

of the Italian energy scenario has been addressed

through the simulation of the 2019 reference Italian

energy scenario according to the demand, supply and

storage data provided by TERNA (the Italian electric

transmission system operator) and GSE (i.e. Gestore

dei Servizi Energetici), the agency responsible for

managing energy services in Italy. The difference

between the model outputs and real data as provided

by IEA (IEA, 2019) (IEA, 2021) has shown

acceptable values, below 3%.

3 2030 NATIONAL ENERGY

SCENARIOS

Two different Italian energy scenarios by 2030 are

modelled starting from the 2019 energy scenario with

the aim to reach the main targets of the Italian NECP.

The modelling of these energy scenarios in

EnergyPlan is executed maintaining the hourly power

distributions of electricity, heating, cooling and

transport demands and the efficiencies/SPFs/COPs of

the different devices equal to the 2019 energy

scenario.

3.1 First 2030 Energy Scenario

3.1.1 Inputs

The first energy scenario is simulated considering the

Italian NECP estimates of increase RES penetration

in the generation mix (i.e. around +40 GW of IRES

plants), coal phase-out in energy production sector,

total final energy consumptions of the different

sectors and electrification of the end-user uses. The

remaining inputs are evaluated as follows. The

individual heating demand is simulated assuming that

heat pumps will be the only electric devices which

will be used in this sector in 2030, while oil, natural

gas and biomass boilers exploitation is modelled

considering the total final energy consumption for

civil uses as defined in the Italian NECP and

maintaining the proportions of the 2019 scenario for

the allocation of the different sources. The annual

energy demand for space cooling is set at 43

TWh/year (Zebra Datamapper, 2020). As for

industry, primary energy consumption divided by fuel

is taken from the Terna-Snam combined scenario

(Terna, Snam, 2019) considering not to use coal in

industry in 2030. The transport energy demand

divided by fuel is modelled considering the total final

energy consumption for transport uses as defined in

the Italian NECP and maintaining the proportions of

the scenario 2019 for the allocation of the different

sources.

Primary energy consumption of power supply

systems is modelled assuming not to use oil for the

powering of these systems and a 23% of biomass-

fired CHP in 2030.

3.1.2 Outputs

The Italian NECP sets the target of 247.18 Mt of total

emissions by 2030 (Mancuso, 2010), this first

modelling of the 2030 energy scenario outlines

around +7% of total emitted CO

compared to this

target. Another important output of this first

simulation is a critical exportable excess of electricity

production (i.e. CEEP), related to the overgeneration

of energy production plants, equal of around +25

TWh/year compared to the 5 TWh/year forecasted in

Terna-Snam combined scenario (Terna, Snam, 2019).

3.2 Second 2030 Energy Scenario

3.2.1 Inputs

A second 2030 energy scenario in Italy is modelled in

this paragraph starting from the first energy scenario

and meeting the NECP target of CO

through the

planning of a post-combustion Carbon Capture and

Sequestration (i.e. CCS) to the gas exhausts of the

power plants (i.e. PP) (Gambini & Vellini, 2003,

2009; Budinis et al., 2018). The process implies a

chemical absorption of the CO

from the flue gases of

the power plants using a chemical solvent, which

generally is an aqueous amine solution. The

electricity consumption per unit of captured CO

set equal to 0.40 MWh/tCO

and it is given by the sum

of the consumptions for the chemical absorption

solvent regeneration process, fluids circulation in the

chemical absorption system and CO

compression and liquefaction (Gambini & Vellini,

2003; Vellini & Gambini, 2015; Feron, 2016).

3.2.2 Outputs

The CCS allows the meeting of the Italian NECP CO

emissions target by 2030, but the CEEP still remains

very high. This value of CEEP can be properly

reduced at acceptable values, below 5 TWh/year and

in line with Terna and SNAM estimates for the 2030

energy scenario (Terna, Snam, 2019), with the use of

this overgeneration for the production of the amount

of hydrogen (Walker et al., 2016) estimated by the

CO2-Reduced Energy Scenarios in Italy: Combined Modelling of Renewable Energy Sources, CCS and Hydrogen Penetration in the

End-User Uses

NHS-PG and, consequently, with an installed

capacity of electrolysers in line with SNAM estimates

(SNAM, 2019).

4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The first simulated 2030 energy scenario is

implemented with the Italian objective of coal phase-

out in the electricity production by 2025 and

considering the input data stated in the NECP

document (when defined). Additionally, a trend in

continuity with the 2019 tendencies for the other

inputs required by EnergyPlan (e.g. efficiency of the

devices, proportions of used sources in transport and

boilers etc.) is modelled. The demonstration of this

scenario outlines a high value of CO

emissions

compared to the Italian NECP target. In fact, the total

emitted CO

of this energy scenario is around 265 Mt

per year, almost +7% of total emitted CO

compared

to the NECP target in terms of GHG emissions.

Transport and production sectors are the main

responsible of this phenomenon, covering more than

the 60% of global CO

emissions in the atmosphere,

as shown in Figure 1. The high penetration of IRES,

modelled in the generation mix of this scenario, also

produces a high value of CEEP. This energy would

be produced in those periods of high availability of

the renewable source and low demand (e.g. at midday

for the solar energy source), thus it would not be used

by the load and a curtailment of the production would

be executed. This phenomenon has a peak value in

June and its trend in this month is shown in Figure 2.

It is necessary to lower as much as possible the value

of the CEEP to reduce the wasted energy and not to

stress the Italian power supply with overgeneration

events.

Figure 1: CO2 emissions by different sectors in 2030 - First

scenario.

The second simulated energy scenario is

characterized by the coupling of hydrogen

penetration in the end-user uses and CCS.

Hydrogen implementation in the end-user uses

allows the reduction of electricity curtailment

throughout the year. Figure 3 shows the reduction of

the peak value of this phenomenon compared to the

first energy scenario.

Figure 2: Power generation and demand in June - First 2030 energy scenario.

ISWEE 2022 - International Symposium on Water, Ecology and Environment

Figure 3: Power generation and demand in June - Second 2030 energy scenario.

The modelling of CCS to the flue gases of existing

power plants produces the partial decarbonization of

the energy production sector, reducing its

contribution to CO

emissions into the atmosphere by

3% compared to the first 2030 simulated scenario.

The total emitted CO

in this second energy

scenario is around 244 Mt per year, allocated between

the different sectors as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: CO2 emissions by different sectors in 2030 -

Second scenario.

However, this energy scenario has the important issue

of sequestration of CO

in a safe and permanent way

(Alcalde et al., 2018).

5 CONCLUSIONS

The paper shows the importance of diversification of

the different technologies for the future 2030 Italian

energy scenario. The simultaneous modelling of CCS

to existing power plants and around +40 GW of IRES

plants compared to the 2019 energy scenario allows

the meeting of the Italian NECP target on CO

emissions. Furthermore, a combined installation of

electrolysers, exploiting electricity overgeneration

for hydrogen penetration as a novel energy vector in

the end-user uses, allows to maintain electricity

curtailment at acceptable values.

Further studies are ongoing implementing a cost-

analysis of the different scenarios and varying the

amount of captured CO

or IRES and hydrogen

penetration in the energy production mix and the end-

user uses respectively. Additionally, considering the

current European and Global situation of the energy

sector (e.g. gas crisis, ambitious emissions targets

etc.), the authors are evaluating possible uses of other

energy sources in Italy, such as the nuclear energy.

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