Research on the Correlation Between Receiving Pfizer-Biontech
COVID-19 Vaccine and Getting Facial Paralysis
Ziyuan Zhang
*
The College of Letters & Science, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, 94720, U.S.A.
Keywords:
COVID-19, Facial Paralysis, Vaccine, Adverse Events, Predictive Analysis.
Abstract: COVID-19 vaccines are widely administered to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and prevent serious illness
and death after getting infected. Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines are administered the most within the
United States, and facial paralysis is one of the adverse events found after receiving the vaccines. The primary
aim of the paper is to develop a predictive model which uses the features of vaccine receivers to predict
whether facial paralysis would emerge as an adverse effect. Four predictive modes trained by undersampled
and oversampled data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) are developed using
logistic regression and decision tree from the last quarter of 2021, and features are selected using chi-square
statistics. The four performance metrics (accuracy, recall, precision, and F1 score) indicate the incapability of
models in making decisions, which also implies the irrelevance of selected features. However, the associations
between selected features and the high-level anxiety of the general public have in receiving vaccines under
the pandemic are worth further research and physicians to study and explore for a more comprehensive
understanding of the adverse events of COVID-19 vaccines, manufactured by Pfizer/BioNTech specifically.
This paper finds that four performance metrics indicate these models are not capable of making sensitive
predictions, which implies the irrelevance of the selected features and getting facial paralysis after receiving
Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines. However, the connections between selected features and the huge
amount of cases reported within a year reveal the high level of anxiety that the general public has in receiving
vaccines under the pandemic.
1 INTRODUCTION
Since the December of 2019, the global pandemic
caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has brought
devastating impacts to the whole society and
economy. According to the World Health
Organization (WHO), as of 6 January 2022, the
SARS-CoV-2 virus has infected 296,496,809 people
worldwide and caused 5,462,631 deaths (Who
coronavirus (COVID-19) dashboard, 2022). To
protect the general public from getting COVID-19, to
reduce the spread of COVID-19, and to decrease the
severity of sickness after getting infected, CDC
recommends people who are 5 years and older get
vaccinated and remain up to date with their vaccines
(Benefits of getting a COVID-19 vaccine, 2022).
Further, a high level of protection against
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in persons aged
16-18 years after receiving 2 doses of COVID-19
vaccines, manufactured by Pfizer/BioNTech
specifically (Li, 2020). As of 12 January 2022, there
are 9 COVID-19 vaccines validated for use in
Emergency Use Listing by WHO, including the
Pfizer/BioNTech Comirnaty, the Moderna COVID-
19 vaccine, Sinovac-CoronaVac, etc. (Coronavirus
disease (covid-19): Vaccines, 2022).
Among the approved vaccines, approximately 284
million Pfizer/BioNTech are administered as of
December 15, 2021, which is the most COVID-19
vaccine administered in the United States (Mikulic,
2021). CDC has suggested several possible side
effects of getting the vaccine, including tiredness,
headache, fever, etc. (Pfizer-biontech COVID-19
vaccine overview and Safety, 2022). Facial paralysis
is one of the rare and serious adverse events found
after getting vaccinated according to the Vaccine
Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).
Although a huge amount of self-reported adverse
effects can be found in VARES, few predictive
models are created to predict the relationship between
specific features of the patients, such as the current
370
Zhang, Z.
Research on the Correlation between Receiving Pfizer-Biontech COVID-19 Vaccine and Getting Facial Paralysis.
DOI: 10.5220/0012021200003633
In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Biotechnology and Biomedicine (ICBB 2022), pages 370-376
ISBN: 978-989-758-637-8
Copyright
c
2023 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
medication and illness, and the adverse events that
may take place.
In this paper, the relationship between specific
features of the patient who got Pfizer/BioNTech
vaccine and facial paralysis are studied by using the
data from VARES during the last quarter of 2021,
September 1st to December 10th specifically. To help
determine the relationship, I first used a chi-squared
test to select features and then applied logistic
regression and decision tree to train the model
separately, and finally check the accuracy, precision,
recall rates, and F1 score of the model. The result can
be used as a reference for people who intend to get
Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines but are afraid
of experiencing facial paralysis as a specific adverse
event.
2 METHOD
2.1 Data Source
All of the data used in the paper are obtained from the
Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).
VAERS was created by the U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services (DHHS), the Food and
Drug Administration (FDA), and CDC to receive
reports about adverse events which might be
associated with vaccines, among all age groups, after
the administration of any licensed vaccine in the
United States (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting
System, 2021).
2.2 Data Collection
Due to the large number of cases associated with
Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines reported,
nearly four hundred and fifty thousand until
December 10th, 2021, and due to technological
limitations and a lack of researchers, data from
September 1st to December 10th are chosen for
analysis.
The three tables provided in VAERS are merged
into one table by using the ID of each case. After
filtering other vaccine names except for “COVID19
(COVID19 (PFIZER-BIONTECH))” and keeping the
cases that have facial paralysis as one of the
symptoms, four columns are kept for features
selection, including “OTHER_MEDS,” “CUR_ILL,”
“HISTORY,” and “SEX.”
“OTHER_MEDS” contains information about
any prescription or non-prescription drugs the
vaccine recipient was taking at the time of
vaccination; “CUR_ILL” contains information about
any current illnesses the vaccine recipient had at the
time of vaccination; and “HISTORY” contains
information about any pre-existing physician-
diagnosed birth defects or medical condition that
existed at the time of vaccination (Vaccine Adverse
Event Reporting System, 2021).
The characteristics of patients are shown in table
1:
Table 1: Characteristics of Patients.
Total (n = 113363)
Age (years), mean (SD) 48.8 (20.8)
Sex, n (%)
Female 74638 (65.8)
Male 37889 (33.4)
Unknown 836 (0.7)
Facial Paralysis, n (%) 237 (0.2)
2.3 Data Pre-Processing
2.3.1 Data Variation
Because most of the cases are self-reported, a large
number of variations in reporting the adverse events
have appeared, including missing information,
misunderstanding of requests, and different formats
of writing. The first five rows of the four selected
columns before feature extraction are presented in
table 2:
Table 2: Selected Columns.
SEX OTHER_MEDS CUR_ILL HISTORY
F pre-natal vitamin, vitamine D supplément, Biotin, Vitamin C
su
pp
lement.
none. none.
F Unknown None listed none listed
F NaN NaN NaN
F Vitamin D, C, and zinc None NaN
F Multivitamin, cymbalta None Depression
and anxiety
Research on the Correlation between Receiving Pfizer-Biontech COVID-19 Vaccine and Getting Facial Paralysis
371
There are two ways in reporting adverse events:
report online and through a PDF form, and the
missing information may be due to the second method,
as the PDF used by VAERS does not have the
function of making people fill in essential blanks,
such as age and gender. Misunderstanding of requests
may because of the relatively complicated reporting
system, which makes unwanted information filled in
the form. For example, the type of tests done by the
person, such as TB tests, are filled in blanks for the
current illness. Different formats of writing generate
the greatest barrier in pre-processing the data, as the
long sentences provided by the vaccine recipients
include different capitalizations between words,
different punctuations or whitespaces in splitting the
items listed, and different names of the same
medicines or symptoms.
2.3.2 Features Selection
To select features from the four columns
“OTHER_MEDS,” “CUR_ILL,” “HISTORY,” and
“SEX,” I replaced all the punctuations with
whitespaces and split the substrings by whitespaces.
Then, the frequency of each substring is collected,
and I picked 26 most frequent features from the four
columns. For each feature selected, a chi-squared
statistic is assigned. The chi-squared statistic is a
commonly used method for feature selection, with the
initial hypothesis H0, which assumes the features and
the class label are unrelated. The greater the value of
chi-squared statistic, the greater evidence against the
hypothesis H0, which means the features and class
label are more related (Chawla, 2002). The chi-
squared formula is shown in equation 1:
𝜒
= 𝛴

(
 
)
(1)
In equation 1, k represents the number of features,
represents the observed count for the group, and
represents the expected count for the group.
The chi-squared statistics for the 26 features with
respect to the target “Facial_Paralysis” is shown in
table 3. Features with the ten highest chi-square
statistics are selected for model training afterwards,
including “Metformin,” “Metoprolol,”
“Atherosclerosis,” “Stroke,” “Hypoglycemia,”
“Hypertension,” “Diabetes,” “Amlodipine,”
“Losartan,” and “Gerd.”
Table 3: Chi-Squared Statistics of Features.
Features Score Features Score Features Score Features Score
Metformin 31.79 Amlodipine 13.80 Migraines 2.08 Sex 0.42
Metoprolol 30.34 Losartan 13.41 Atorvastatin 2.00 Levothyroxine 0.15
Atherosclerosis 29.98 Gerd 10.21 Osteoarthritis 1.22 Depression 0.01
Stroke 25.18 Apnea 9.61 Omeprazole 1.20 Asthma 0.01
Hypoglycemia 24.75 Lisinopril 8.07 Arthritis 1.05 Hypothyroidism 0.01
Hypertension 16.00 Aspirin 3.17 COVID 0.99
Diabetes 15.83 Hyperlipide
mia
2.30 Albuterol 0.60
The ten features were further converted to
numerical data by using one hot encoding, which is a
process in converting categorical features into
indicative variable for better model training.
2.3.3 Oversampling and Undersampling
The total number of cases in the quarter data is
113,363, but only 237 of the cases have facial
paralysis, which makes the data in cohort imbalanced.
Classifiers that are trained on extremely imbalanced
data would be biased towards the majority class,
which is not having facial paralysis in this case. In the
experimenting process, the Logistic Regression
model trained with original data, which was split into
67% training set and 33% testing set, had achieved
nearly 100% accuracy, but the problem was that the
predictive model tried to predict everyone in the
testing set without facial paralysis. For better model
training, both oversampling and undersampling
methods are used separately for training models.
For oversampling, the synthetic minority
oversampling technique (SMOTE) is used. The basic
idea of SMOTE is oversampling the minority class by
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372
taking every minority class sample and applying
synthetic examples along the line segments that join
any or all of the k minority class nearest neighbors
(Bidgoli, 2012). The optimal SMOTE ratios for
different models are found through hyperparameter
tuning, using an Exhaustive Grid Search from Scikit
learn with a three-fold cross validation and F1 score
as the scoring method.
For undersampling, random undersampling is
used. The basic idea of random sampling is randomly
deleting examples in the majority class. I randomly
deleted the majority class till the imbalanced cohort
has 50:50 class ratio, because when random
undersampling the negative class to half of the ratio,
similarities can be found in the average performance
when comparing to the model using the entire big
dataset (Hasanin, 2018).
2.4 Model Training
The datasets after oversampling and undersampling
are split into 67% training set and 33% testing set.
Two machine learning algorithms are selected to train
the predictive model, including logistic regression
(Hosmer, 2013) and decision tree classifier (Song,
2015), using the features with 10 highest chi-squared
statistics as independent variables and facial paralysis
as the dependent target. Therefore, there are four
models in total to predict whether the patient with
given features will have facial paralysis after getting
Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, including
logistic regression classifier with undersampled data,
logistic regression classifier with oversampled data,
decision tree classifier with undersampled data, and
decision tree classifier with oversampled data.
The criterion for choosing the optimum split in the
decision tree classifier is entropy. Entropy is the
measure of the disorder level of the features selected
with the target, and in this case, entropy is the disorder
level of the ten features with facial paralysis. The
higher the entropy of features, the higher level of
disorder, which makes the optimum split chosen by
the least entropy. The entropy formula is shown in
equation 2:
𝑆= 𝛴
𝑝
𝑙𝑜𝑔
𝑝
(2)
In equation 2, is the proportion of data points in a
node with label C.
Pipelines are created for models with the
oversampling method in the training process. All the
pipelines include oversampling approach, SMOTE,
with sampling strategy obtained by hyperparameter
tuning and the machine learning algorithms used.
2.5 Model Evaluation
The performances of the four predictive models are
evaluated based on the four scores obtained from 10-
fold cross validation, including accuracy, recall,
precision, and F1 score. All four scores are calculated
by using True Positive (TP), True Negative (TN),
False Positive (FP), and False Negative (FN).
Equations of the four metrics are shown:
𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 =


(3)
Equation 3 shows the formula of accuracy, which
represents the proportion of correctly predicted
observations in total observations, which is important
when the dataset has a nearly equal number of False
Positives and False Negatives.
𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 =


(4)
Equation 4 shows the formula of recall, which
represents the proportion of correctly predicted
positive observations in total actual positive
observations, which is important when the cost of
False Negatives is high.
𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 =

 
(5)
Equation 5 shows the formula of precision, which
represents the proportion of correctly predicted
positive observations in total predicted positive
observations, which is important when the cost of
False Positives is high.
𝐹1 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 =


(6)
Equation 6 shows the formula of F1 score, which
represents the harmonic mean of precision and recall,
which is important when a balance in precision and
recall is needed and the dataset is imbalanced.
Although these four metrics are useful in
evaluating the performance of a model, they focus on
different perspectives as mentioned above. In our
case where the dataset is highly imbalanced, with
only 0.2% positive cases, precision, recall, and F1
score are more preferred than accuracy. Despite False
Positives and False Negatives are both undesirable
outcomes, the consequence brought by False
Negatives in medical prediction is worse because
patients would get the incorrect prediction and be
exposed to the risk in getting facial paralysis after
receiving Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.
Therefore, the importance rank of the four metrics
would be recall, precision, F1 score, and accuracy.
Further, to avoid an optimistic estimate of the
model performance, the 10-fold cross validation is
Research on the Correlation between Receiving Pfizer-Biontech COVID-19 Vaccine and Getting Facial Paralysis
373
performed on the original training and testing sets
(before SMOTE and random undersampling) with the
model trained on resampled data (after SMOTE and
random undersampling). Table (4) provides a
summary of the performance of the four models:
Table 4: Model Performance.
Logistic Regression Decision Tree
SMOTE Random
Undersampling
SMOTE Random
Undersampling
Recall 1.84% 28.00% 3.09% 20.00%
Precision 1.30% 0.44% 2.16% 0.50%
F1 Score 1.36% 0.87% 2.73% 0.98%
Accuracy 99.63% 87.24% 99.46% 91.90%
Comparing between the metrics of the four
models, the Logistic Regression model with data after
undersampling is the best-performing model, with
28.00% for recall, 0.44% for precision, 0.87% for F1
score, and 87.24% for accuracy. However, the
Logistic Regression model trained with data after
oversampling using SMOTE has the worst model
performance, with 1.84% for recall, 1.30% for
precision, 1.36% for F1 score, and 99.63% for
accuracy.
Although the Logistic Regression model trained
with data after random undersampling has the best
performance among the four models, it is still
incapable for predicting whether the person who
received Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines with
given features would get facial paralysis. Apply the
metrics in the best-performing model in context,
among those patients who had facial paralysis, only
28% of them are successfully predicted, and among
those who are predicted to have facial paralysis, only
0.44% of them really suffer from it. Therefore, all of
the four models that are trained by using the ten
highest chi-squared statistics features are incapable in
making predictions, which further reveals the fact that
the features selected are relatively irrelevant to the
target class facial paralysis under the condition of
receiving Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines.
3 DISCUSSION
Given the broadly administration of COVID-19
vaccines to combat with the global pandemic
COVID-19, a notable number of adverse events has
emerged. Facial paralysis is one of the adverse events
occurred after receiving Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19
vaccines according to the Vaccine Adverse Event
Reporting System (VAERS). Using Logistic
Regression and Decision Tree Classifier, I developed
four models to predict whether the person might get
facial paralysis after receiving Pfizer/BioNTech
COVID-19 vaccines given the ten features, including
“Metformin,” “Metoprolol,” “Atherosclerosis,”
“Stroke,” “Hypoglycemia,” “Hypertension,”
“Diabetes,” “Amlodipine, “Losartan,” and “Gerd.”
The 26 features are selected based on the appearing
frequencies in the dataset among four columns
(“OTHER_MEDS,” “CUR_ILL,” “HISTORY,” and
“SEX”) in the merging dataset tables at first. Further,
a chi-squared statistic is assigned to each feature, and
the ten features with the highest chi-square statistics
are kept for final model training. Due to the imbalance
proportion of positive and negative cases in the
original dataset, random undersampling and synthetic
minority oversampling technique are applied to the
dataset in order to train the model unbiasedly and
improve the overall performance. The performance of
models is evaluated through a 10-fold cross validation
on four metrics, including recall, precision, F1 score,
and accuracy.
The Logistic Regression model trained with
random undersampling data has the best performance
among the four models built, according to the
performance metrics. Recall is the most determining
performance metric as the cost of False Positive is
high in medical cases, whereas the best model only
achieves 28% for recall, which indicates all the
models are not sensitive enough do the prediction.
This also implies the features selected are not relevant
enough to getting facial paralysis as the result of
receiving Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines.
Although the 10 features are not predictive or
causal to facial paralysis as one of the adverse events
after receiving Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines,
the relations between features might worth to be
researched by further studies or considered by
physicians. Within the ten features, 6 of them are
illnesses and the rest 4 are medications, where strong
relationships could be found.
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374
Feature “Stroke” could cause oro-facial
impairment directly, which can be described as facial
paralysis (Schimmel, 2017). Further, features
Diabetes andHypertension are the two main
systemic comorbidities associated with Bell’s Palsy,
another form of facial paralysis, and hypertension is
also a major modifiable contributor to stroke
(Mancini, 2019; Buonacera, 2019). Feature
“Atherosclerosis” has an ischemic stroke as one of its
major clinical manifestations (Herrington, 2016).
Feature “Hypoglycemia” is one of the essential issues
for diabetic patients, and repeated hypoglycemia
could rise the risk of cardiovascular diseases
(Tourkmani, 2018).
From the medication features’ perspectives,
feature “Metformin” is widely used to treat type 2
diabetes at early stages (Lv, 2020). Features
“Metoprolol,” “Amlodipine,” and “Losartan” are
used to reduce morality in patients with hypertension
and coronary heart diseases, which might further
reduce the risk of hypertensive stroke (Kwon, 2013;
Pareek, 2010).
The relations between the ten selected features are
presented graphically in Figure 1:
Figure 1: Relations of Features.
Therefore, the weak-performing models and the
direct relations between selected features and facial
paralysis indicate this specific adverse event reported
in VAERS might because of the pre-existing
conditions and current medications intake of patients
but not because of receiving Pfizer/BioNTech
COVID-19 vaccines. However, further studies with
sufficient time and funds are needed to utilize the
whole dataset in order to reach a more comprehensive
conclusion.
Furthermore, nearly 450 thousand adverse events
associated with Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19
vaccines were reported within a year, beginning
December 15th, 2020, and ending December 10th,
2021. Such a huge amount of reported cases for a
single brand of vaccine in a relatively short period of
time could imply the anxiety of people after receiving
vaccines during a pandemic. It is worth noting that
there is a bidirectional temporal association between
facial paralysis and anxiety (Tseng, 2017). Therefore,
the prevalent anxiety could be another risk factor for
the facial paralysis cases, and further studies need to
explore the correlation between anxiety and facial
paralysis under the condition of receiving
Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines.
4 CONCLUSION
The primary goal of this study is to develop a model
to predict whether the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19
vaccines receiver would get facial paralysis as an
adverse event based on the data from VAERS. The
self-report system of VAERS where everyone is able
to submit an adverse event case makes the data
incomprehensive and easily biased, and the feature
extraction process during data analysis might miss
information by breaking the completeness of
sentences. Another major limitation is the partial data
involved, as only the last quarter of the records are
used due to huge amount of data involved and limited
research resources. Further explorations of the
association between facial paralysis and receiving
Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines with more
comprehensive data and more cost-sensitive models
are expected. Although four predictive models are
developed using features with the highest chi-squared
statistics, four performance metrics indicate these
models are not capable in making sensitive
predictions, which implies the irrelevance of the
selected features and getting facial paralysis after
Research on the Correlation between Receiving Pfizer-Biontech COVID-19 Vaccine and Getting Facial Paralysis
375
receiving Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines.
However, the connections between selected features
and the huge amount of cases reported within a year
reveal the high level of anxiety that general public has
in receiving vaccines under the pandemic. Further
studies are needed to investigate the association
between anxiety and other diseases before and after
receiving COVID-19 vaccines. Because getting
vaccinated could reduce the spread of COVID-19 and
prevent serious illness and death after getting infected
(Stay up to date with your vaccines, 2022), the
general public should be positive towards COVID-19
vaccines and be confident in the fight against
COVID-19.
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